Weekly Market Update (CW10)

IFA Releases New Report: Specialty Fertilizer Market Expands Across the Board, Water-Soluble Fertilizers Lead with 12% Growth

Recently, the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) released its 2024 Specialty Fertilizer Demand Assessment Report, covering three major categories: stabilized nitrogen fertilizers, water-soluble fertilizers, and controlled-release fertilizers.

According to the report, global consumption of these three specialty fertilizer categories reached 18.8 million tons in 2024, representing a 5% increase compared to the previous year. All specialty fertilizer segments continued to expand, with water-soluble fertilizers showing the strongest growth at 12%.

Specifically, global water-soluble fertilizer consumption increased to 6 million tons in 2024, up 12% year-on-year. Approximately 43% of global consumption was concentrated in China. In 2024, China’s water-soluble fertilizer consumption reached approximately 2.6 million tons.

In addition, the rapid adoption of micro-irrigation technologies in India in recent years has become another major driver supporting the growth of water-soluble fertilizer demand.

U.S. Airstrikes on Iran: Will Global Urea and Sulfur Supply Chains Face Major Disruptions?

Iran is one of the world’s key fertilizer-producing countries and holds an important position in the global urea, sulfur, and methanol markets. Its production and export dynamics have significant implications for the global fertilizer market.

Iranian urea is widely favored for its high nitrogen content and competitive pricing. While meeting domestic agricultural demand, Iran also exports large volumes overseas. In addition, diammonium phosphate (DAP) is another important fertilizer product in Iran’s portfolio.

Urea Market

The Middle East is the world’s largest urea export region, with total exports reaching approximately 20 million tons in 2024. Iran’s urea production capacity is estimated at around 8 million tons, accounting for nearly 20% of the Middle East’s total export volume. Iranian urea and other fertilizer products are mainly exported to India, Southeast Asia, and Europe.

In mid-January, amid rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, a significant number of Iranian urea plants reportedly suspended operations. This triggered concerns in the international market, and reduced available supply directly contributed to price increases.

Sulfur Market

Iran is also one of the world’s major sulfur suppliers. In recent years, global sulfur demand growth has outpaced supply growth, resulting in a persistently tight supply-demand balance. Combined with export policy adjustments and logistics changes in Northern Europe and Central Asia, the Middle East has increasingly become the primary global sulfur spot supply hub and a core source of China’s sulfur imports.

Amid tensions in the Middle East, sellers have shown stronger price-supporting sentiment. However, due to the sudden nature of the developments, market participants have largely adopted a wait-and-see approach, and price increases at major ports have so far remained limited.

2025 Annual Reports from Global Potash Leaders

In 2025, global potash supply tightened due to production reductions in key producing regions, limited new capacity additions, and geopolitical factors. At the same time, sustained demand supported an overall upward trend in potash prices.

Recently, major international potash producers including Nutrien, Mosaic, and ICL released their Q4 and full-year 2025 financial reports. Overall, the potash segments performed strongly. However, companies also faced rising mining costs, currency fluctuations, and other cost pressures. Continued cost inflation may further strengthen producers’ price-supporting stance, providing solid backing for potash prices to remain elevated.

Based on disclosed financial data:

• Nutrien’s potash segment achieved net sales of USD 3.593 billion in 2025, up 20% year-on-year. This growth was driven by both higher volumes and prices, with annual potash sales reaching a record 14.25 million tons, including 6.54 million tons sold in Q4 alone.

• Mosaic also delivered strong performance. Its total annual potash production rose to 8.8 million tons, the highest level since 2019. Net sales for the segment reached USD 2.7 billion, representing a 12.5% year-on-year increase.

• ICL demonstrated notable earnings resilience. Although annual potash production and sales declined by 125,000 tons and 236,000 tons respectively, the company benefited from an average annual potash price of USD 316 per ton (CIF), up 5.69% year-on-year. In Q4, the average price rose to USD 348 per ton, effectively offsetting the impact of lower volumes. As a result, ICL achieved net potash segment sales of USD 1.714 billion.

Overall, while global potash producers reported solid performance in 2025, they are broadly facing rising cost pressures. These cost dynamics are likely to reinforce producers’ push for higher prices, thereby strengthening expectations for continued firmness in the potash market.

U.S. Designates Glyphosate and Phosphorus as Critical Defense Materials

Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to designate glyphosate-based herbicides and elemental phosphorus as critical defense materials. He also instructed Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins to prioritize and stabilize domestic supply.

Glyphosate remains one of the most important products in the global agrochemical market. China’s glyphosate production capacity is approximately 832,000 tons, with 2025 output reaching 630,700 tons, representing a 3.53% year-on-year increase. China remains the world’s leading supplier of glyphosate.

Given the current oversupply conditions in China’s domestic market, the impact of U.S. policy adjustments on China’s glyphosate market is expected to remain limited in the near term.