Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW18)

Recently, driven by a combination of escalating geopolitical tensions, tightening raw material supply, rising freight costs, and the release of rigid demand from the spring planting season, the global fertilizer market has trended upward overall. Prices for nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers have strengthened across the board, with increasingly differentiated regional supply–demand dynamics. Many countries are accelerating efforts to establish long-term, stable fertilizer supply chains, signaling that the industry has entered a phase characterized by high volatility and strong cost-driven momentum.

I. China’s Potash Imports Surge, with Increasing Share from Russia and Belarus

According to the latest quarterly customs data, both the volume and value of China’s potash fertilizer imports have risen significantly, reflecting strong overall demand. From January to March, China imported a cumulative 4.58 million tons of potash, up 29.3% year-on-year, with total import value reaching USD 1.65 billion, a sharp increase of 65.2%. In March alone, imports totaled 1.68 million tons, up 23% year-on-year, with an import value of USD 546.9 million, marking a 59.8% increase.

In terms of sourcing, major supplying countries all recorded notable growth in exports to China. In Q1, potash imports from Belarus reached USD 409.9 million, surging 71.1% year-on-year; in March alone, imports from Belarus amounted to USD 132.1 million, up 29.8%.

During the same period, exports from Russia, Canada, Laos, and Israel to China also increased, with Laos showing the most remarkable growth-a staggering 86.5-fold increase year-on-year. Additionally, China’s total imports from Belarus across all product categories rose by 17.8% in Q1, indicating deepening bilateral trade ties. Russia and Belarus have now become core and stable sources of potash supply for China.

II. Raw Material Shortages Suppress Production, Pakistan’s SOP Operating Rates Decline Sharply

Affected by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, global sulfur trade flows have been disrupted, placing Pakistan’s fertilizer industry-highly dependent on Iranian sulfur imports-under severe raw material pressure. Mannheim-process SOP production in Pakistan relies heavily on cross-border sulfur supply, and tight availability coupled with sharply rising CIF prices has intensified cost pressures. Iranian sulfur truck prices at the border have surged to USD 750-780/ton. The increase in raw material costs has driven sulfuric acid prices to more than double compared to pre-conflict levels, directly squeezing producers’ margins.

Under such pressure, multiple SOP producers in Pakistan have been forced to reduce operating rates. Industry-wide utilization has dropped from 80-90% to 50-75%. Leading local fertilizer companies such as Engro, Sankalp, and Akbari are operating at reduced capacity, while some plants are also undergoing maintenance, further slowing short-term production recovery.

However, overall supply risks remain manageable. If SOP prices continue to rise, downstream buyers may switch to potassium chloride (MOP) as a substitute, easing localized supply shortages. At present, ex-factory SOP prices remain elevated, with intensifying cost–demand dynamics.

III. Global Fertilizer Retail Prices Rise Across the Board, Urea Leads Nitrogen Segment

According to international agricultural market monitoring data, global fertilizer retail prices continued their rapid upward trend in the second week of April, with both month-on-month and year-on-year increases across most product categories.

Nitrogen fertilizers led the rally, with urea prices surging 27% month-on-month, while products such as ammonia and UAN solutions followed suit. The phosphate market showed steady gains, with diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP) posting weekly increases of around 5%. Potash prices rose more moderately, acting as a relative stabilizer in the overall market volatility.

On a year-on-year basis, the upward trend is even more pronounced. Major fertilizer categories have recorded double-digit increases, with urea up 49% year-on-year.

Ammonia and UAN solutions rose by over 30%, while phosphate fertilizers, compound fertilizers, and potash also saw varying degrees of increase. From a nutrient cost perspective, nitrogen input costs have risen across the board, pushing up overall fertilizer application costs for farmers.

With peak spring demand in the Northern Hemisphere coinciding with elevated raw material and logistics costs, global fertilizer prices are likely to remain firm in the short term.

IV. Supply Tightening and Rising Logistics Costs Drive International Potash Prices Higher

The global MOP market is currently characterized by intensified bullish–bearish competition, with supply constraints and rising logistics costs serving as the two main drivers of price increases.

On the supply side, major global potash suppliers have already committed their Q2 volumes, with no additional spot cargoes expected before the end of June. This tightening of spot availability has reinforced bullish market sentiment.

From a logistics perspective, geopolitical disruptions have impacted key shipping routes such as the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, causing freight rates to spike significantly in the short term, with some routes seeing costs double. The combination of higher logistics costs and limited supply has driven overseas spot prices upward rapidly, with potash prices in certain regions of the United States rising by over 8% week-on-week.

At the same time, long-term cross-border contracts between China and Russia have seen price increases, effectively establishing a firm price floor in the global potash market. Supported by rigid demand and constrained supply, international potash prices are expected to remain strong over the longer term.

V. India Expands Overseas Capacity to Hedge Against Global Price Volatility

In response to significant fluctuations in global fertilizer prices, India-highly dependent on imports—is accelerating the development of long-term supply chain strategies. It has entered into a joint venture with Russia to build a urea production facility with an annual capacity of 2 million tons, based on equal equity participation.

The project leverages Russia’s strengths in energy and chemical production alongside India’s strong domestic agricultural demand, aiming to secure stable long-term fertilizer supply.

Currently, India faces persistently high urea import costs, with spot prices nearly doubling compared to pre-conflict levels, significantly increasing fiscal pressure on agricultural subsidies. Once operational, the overseas production facility is expected to reduce India’s reliance on imports and mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions, and rising raw material costs.

However, the project also faces multiple uncertainties, including geopolitical risks, budget constraints, construction timelines, and competition from emerging fertilizer alternatives. Its long-term operational stability remains subject to these factors.

Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW18)