China Set to Supply Around 1.2 Million MT of Urea to India China is expected to supply approximately 1.2 million MT of urea under India’s latest tender, marking one of the most significant Chinese export flows into the global nitrogen market this year. India’s state-owned Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF) sought up to 1.7 million MT, with cargoes required to be loaded by September 24. The lowest reported offers were: East Coast India: USD 390.25/MT CFR West Coast Indi

1. India’s DAP Support Keeps Import Demand Firm - but Weather Adds Uncertainty India continues to shield farmers from high international DAP prices through a heavily subsidized domestic market. The government has maintained DAP at an MRP of INR 1,350 per 50 kg bag, while a special provision of INR 3,500/MT has been used to compensate producers and importers for logistics, GST-related costs and reasonable margins. For Kharif 2026, the government further increased the overall b

Global Food Crisis Risks Are Building Major financial institutions including JPMorgan and HSBC have warned that the risk of a broader and more prolonged global food crisis is increasing as multiple supply-side pressures converge. HSBC points to tightening grain supplies, extreme weather and disruptions to major shipping routes. By July, a composite basket of wheat, corn, barley and rice prices had risen around 22% year on year, while prices of key soft commodities such as coc

Global Fertilizer Prices May Remain Elevated Through 2028 CoBank believes that conflict in the Middle East, tight supply, and damaged production capacity could keep global fertilizer prices above pre-war levels through 2027-2028. The Middle East supplies more than 60 million MT of fertilizers and fertilizer raw materials to the global market each year, of which around 45 million MT is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. The region also accounts for approximately 45% of glob

Key Takeaways This week, the global fertilizer market was shaped by three major themes: the rising strategic value of potash, renewed competition in the global urea market, and softer fertilizer flows into Brazil. Potash remains structurally supported by food-security concerns and highly concentrated global supply. Meanwhile, India is diversifying urea sourcing away from the Gulf while lower-priced Chinese cargoes are returning to the market. In Brazil, fertilizer deliveries,

China Fertilizer Trade: Imports Surge, Exports Decline From January to July 2026, China imported 11.02 million tonnes of fertilizers, up 44.7% year on year, while import value rose 70.2% to USD 4.14 billion. In July alone, imports reached 1.40 million tonnes, valued at USD 531 million, with an average CIF price of USD 378.89/tonne. Meanwhile, China’s fertilizer exports during the first seven months declined by nearly 20%, highlighting a significant shift in trade flows. Urea:

Global fertilizer markets remain divided. Urea prices have stabilized at lower levels as Chinese exports resume, while phosphate prices remain elevated due to supply disruptions, high raw-material costs and restricted Middle Eastern logistics. India continues to support global nitrogen demand through another major urea tender, while weaker agricultural profitability is slowing fertilizer purchasing in Brazil.

Weekly Highlights The global fertilizer market continued to show clear divergence this week: Nitrogen fertilizers: European purchasing demand and policy incentives supported a recovery in urea prices, while ammonium sulfate remained under pressure due to export competition and shifting demand patterns.

U.S.–Iran tensions are pushing energy costs higher and disrupting Middle East fertilizer logistics, strengthening the outlook for higher global urea prices. Market highlights TTF gas rose from €40/MWh to €53/MWh. China H1 urea exports surged +551.9%. Sulfur price rose RMB 300/MT to RMB 9,180/MT. KCl imports reached 8.8 million MT, up 40.2%. China resumed mandatory export inspection for ammonium sulfate from July 16.

The global fertilizer market showed a clear divergence this week. Nitrogen fertilizer prices declined sharply, while phosphate fertilizers continued to strengthen under firm cost support from sulfur feedstocks. India has entered the fertilizer stocking period for the Kharif monsoon season. At the same time, soaring costs for water-soluble fertilizers and phosphoric acid are placing considerable pressure on industry margins.

Nitrogen prices are correcting as risk premiums fade. Phosphates remain constrained by sulfur shortages and limited tradable volume. Brazil is seeking emergency supply from Russia, China and Morocco. Thailand’s full import dependence is increasing farmer cost pressure. U.S. tariff relief on Moroccan phosphates shows rising supply-security concerns. QatarEnergy raised July sulfur FOB price to USD 890/t.

Hormuz Shipping Recovers | Sulfur Drops Sharply While Sulfuric Acid Rises | China’s May Potash Import Data | Russia Turns to Gasoline Imports

ulfur-driven phosphate cost pressure and weaker urea fundamentals are now moving in opposite directions. A useful snapshot of this week’s fertilizer market dynamics, especially for importers, producers and distributors watching Q3 procurement timing.

China's sulfur prices surpassed RMB 10,000/ton; Global urea prices fell by more than 30%; Brazil's sulfur imports dropped to a 21-year low in May.

The global fertilizer market remained highly polarized this week. Sulfur prices continued to surge sharply, significantly increasing phosphate fertilizer production costs. Long-term growth prospects for ammonium sulfate remain positive, although near-term market sentiment has softened. India finalized major phosphate fertilizer purchases from Morocco, securing regional supply for the upcoming agricultural season.

This week, the global fertilizer market was primarily driven by four key factors: disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, surging raw material prices, China's newly issued urea export quota combined with India's latest urea tender, and the conclusion of India's annual potash contract.

Sulfur prices surged sharply, severely disrupting the global phosphate fertilizer supply chain and forcing multiple producers to reduce output. China’s ammonium sulfate market shifted from rapid price increases to a correction phase due to weaker demand, declining export profitability, and growing supply pressure. India’s 2026 annual potash contract established a stronger global price floor, supporting international potash market sentiment despite increasing regional demand d

China Potash Market Upward | U.S. Agriculture Under Shortages | Cost Inversion in Phosphate Sector

Global fertilizer markets remain highly volatile as geopolitical tensions, Middle East shipping disruptions, rising sulfur costs, and shifting seasonal demand continue to reshape trade flows and production economics. This week, international urea prices corrected sharply after India’s IPL tender, sulfur prices surged to multi-year highs, Europe’s fertilizer industry faced mounting energy pressure, and climate agencies warned of a potential strong El Niño return

Recently, driven by a combination of escalating geopolitical tensions, tightening raw material supply, rising freight costs, and the release of rigid demand from the spring planting season, the global fertilizer market has trended upward overall. Prices for nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers have strengthened across the board, with increasingly differentiated regional supply–demand dynamics.