Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW24)

The global fertilizer market remained highly polarized this week. Sulfur prices continued to surge sharply, significantly increasing phosphate fertilizer production costs. Long-term growth prospects for ammonium sulfate remain positive, although near-term market sentiment has softened. India finalized major phosphate fertilizer purchases from Morocco, securing regional supply for the upcoming agricultural season. Meanwhile, Russia reported lower year-on-year production of fertilizers and key upstream raw materials, further tightening global supply conditions. In the United States, some nitrogen fertilizer prices eased slightly after months of gains, although overall fertilizer prices remain substantially higher than a year ago.

1. Ammonium Sulfate: Long-Term Expansion Outlook Remains Strong

According to a recent report by Chemical & Materials, the global ammonium sulfate market was valued at approximately USD 4.5 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 5.7 billion by 2035, representing an increase of USD 1.2 billion over the next decade. This corresponds to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 2.4%.

Rising global food demand, increasing agricultural intensification, and the growing adoption of sulfur-containing fertilizers are expected to support steady market expansion across both agricultural and industrial sectors.

Growth Phases

• 2025-2030: Market value expected to increase to USD 5.0 billion, accounting for approximately 41.7% of total projected growth.

  
  

• 2030-2035: Market value forecast to reach USD 5.7 billion, contributing the remaining 58.3% of growth, driven primarily by sustainable agriculture, precision fertilization, and soil health improvement initiatives.

  
  

Product Structure and Applications

Granular ammonium sulfate continues to dominate the market due to its superior flowability, reduced caking tendency, and compatibility with mechanized fertilizer application systems. The granular segment is expected to account for approximately 52% of global consumption in 2025.

Agriculture remains the largest end-use sector, representing around 72% of total consumption, while the remainder is utilized in industrial applications and animal feed production.

Production is primarily supported by:

• Caprolactam by-product recovery

• Synthetic chemical manufacturing routes

Challenges and Future Trends

The industry continues to face several challenges:

• Competition from alternative nitrogen fertilizers such as urea

• Increasing environmental regulations related to ammonia emissions and soil acidification

• Upstream raw material constraints and production bottlenecks

Three major development trends are emerging:

1. Development of environmentally friendly, high-efficiency fertilizer products.

2. Growth of customized fertilizer formulations driven by precision agriculture technologies.

3. Expansion of specialty ammonium sulfate products, including coated and controlled-release grades, targeting high-value crops.

Regional growth forecasts (2025–2035 CAGR) indicate varying market dynamics:

Country	CAGR
United States	2.8%
Mexico	2.6%
Germany	2.2%
France	2.1%
United Kingdom	1.9%
South Korea	1.8%
Japan	1.7%

While the Chinese domestic market remains relatively weak in the short term due to cautious downstream purchasing, demand from Brazil continues to strengthen, gradually supporting export opportunities.

2. Sulfur: Inventories Halved as Prices Approach RMB 10,000/Ton

Sulfur prices continued their dramatic upward trajectory this week, largely driven by ongoing disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and reduced availability of Middle Eastern exports.

At the beginning of 2026, sulfur prices at Chinese ports averaged approximately RMB 4,000/ton. By June 7, auction floor prices for solid sulfur in Shandong had risen to RMB 9,800/ton, an increase of more than RMB 2,000/ton within a single month and approaching the symbolic RMB 10,000/ton threshold.

Inventory Situation

Domestic sulfur inventories have fallen sharply:

• Current Chinese port inventories: approximately 900,000 tons

• Same period last year: approximately 2 million tons

Market participants generally believe that Middle Eastern supply disruptions may persist, leaving further upside potential for sulfur prices. At present, demand destruction caused by exceptionally high prices appears to be the only significant factor that could trigger a market correction.

Impact on Phosphate Fertilizers

Sulfur remains the primary feedstock for sulfuric acid production.

At current sulfur values, sulfuric acid production costs have exceeded RMB 3,000/ton.

Given that approximately 1.5 tons of sulfuric acid are required to produce one ton of DAP or MAP, sulfur-related costs alone now exceed RMB 4,500 per ton of phosphate fertilizer output.

As a result, phosphate producers are facing unprecedented cost pressure, contributing to widening differences in operating rates across the industry.

3. Phosphates: India Secures Moroccan Supply for Summer Demand

Major Indian importers finalized a significant phosphate fertilizer procurement program this week, purchasing:

• 100,000 tons of Diammonium Phosphate (DAP)

• 100,000 tons of Triple Super Phosphate (TSP)

from Morocco for shipment during June and July.

Transaction Prices

Product	East Coast CFR	West Coast CFR
DAP	USD 935/ton	USD 930/ton
TSP	USD 710/ton	USD 710/ton

Equivalent FOB values are estimated at:

• DAP: approximately USD 880/ton FOB

• TSP: approximately USD 660/ton FOB

These prices are broadly consistent with levels established during the recent procurement tender conducted by the Indian Potash Limited (IPL).

Earlier this year, IPL had already secured more than 1.3 million tons of DAP and received offers covering approximately 410,000 tons of TSP.

The latest purchases further strengthen India's fertilizer supply position ahead of the summer agricultural season and contribute to greater stability within regional phosphate trade flows.

4. Russia: April Production Declines Despite Unchanged Annual Growth Targets

According to data released by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service and the Russian Fertilizer Producers Association, fertilizer and upstream raw material production weakened in April 2026.

Fertilizer Production

• Total nutrient-adjusted fertilizer output: 2.5 million tons

• Month-on-month: -4.9%

• Year-on-year: -2.1%

January-April cumulative production reached 10.3 million tons, down 0.4% from the same period in 2025.

Upstream Raw Materials

Ammonia

• April output: 1.4 million tons

• Month-on-month: +3%

• Year-on-year: -11.2%

• January-April cumulative production: -7%

Sulfur

• April output: 370,000 tons

• Month-on-month: -9.4%

• Year-on-year: -9.0%

• January-April cumulative production: -11.5%

Despite short-term production weakness, Russia has maintained its annual industry targets.

The Russian Fertilizer Producers Association continues to project:

• Total fertilizer production in 2026: 66 million tons

• 2025 production: 65.5 million tons

• Fertilizer exports: 46 million tons

• 2025 exports: 45 million tons

5. United States: Nitrogen Prices Ease, but Markets Remain Historically Strong

The U.S. fertilizer market experienced its first meaningful correction after several months of sustained price increases.

During the third week of May, potash and UAN32 prices began to soften. By the fourth week, six of the eight major fertilizer products tracked by industry surveys continued to rise, while two posted declines.

Average U.S. Fertilizer Prices

Product	Price (USD/ton)
Urea	823
UAN32	585
UAN28	530
DAP	914
MAP	953
Potash	494
10-34-0	723
Anhydrous Ammonia	1,118

Year-on-Year Price Changes

Product	Increase
Anhydrous Ammonia	+44%
UAN28	+27%
Urea	+24%
UAN32	+18%
DAP	+15%
MAP	+15%

Although some prices have retreated from recent highs, the market remains significantly stronger than a year ago.

Industry analysts continue to identify two key factors that will determine future U.S. fertilizer price direction:

• China's fertilizer export policy developments

• Supply risks associated with Middle East shipping disruptions

Market Outlook

The global fertilizer market remains heavily influenced by geopolitical and logistical risks. Sulfur has become the dominant cost driver for phosphate fertilizers, while tightening Russian production and ongoing shipping disruptions continue to constrain global supply. Although certain nitrogen markets are showing signs of short-term correction, fertilizer prices across most regions remain historically elevated. Market participants are expected to closely monitor Middle Eastern shipping conditions, Chinese export policy developments, and seasonal procurement activity from major importing countries throughout June.

Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW24)

Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Golden Raven is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.