Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW25) | June 8-14, 2026

Key Highlights

1. China's sulfur prices surpassed RMB 10,000/ton, reaching an all-time high. Production costs for phosphate fertilizer producers surged sharply, deepening industry-wide losses. Meanwhile, phosphogypsum-based sulfuric acid production is gaining momentum as an alternative solution to sulfur shortages.

   
   

2. Global urea prices fell by more than 30%, returning to levels seen before the recent Middle East tensions. Market concerns have eased, although geopolitical risks remain.

   
   

3. Brazil's sulfur imports dropped to a 21-year low in May, prompting a significant increase in sulfuric acid imports. Overall fertilizer arrivals in the first quarter recorded modest growth.

   
   

1. Sulfur Market: Soaring Prices Push Phosphate Producers into Deep Losses

Domestic sulfur prices continued their extraordinary rally this week. On June 10, granular sulfur quotations at Zhenjiang Port officially exceeded RMB 10,000/ton, setting a new historical record.

As of June 8, granular sulfur at Yangtze River ports was quoted at RMB 9,600/ton ex-port, up:

• RMB 2,120/ton (+28.34%) from the beginning of June;

• RMB 5,600/ton (+140%) from the start of the year;

• RMB 6,990/ton (+267.82%) year-on-year.

The surge is primarily driven by disruptions in imported sulfur supply and insufficient domestic production capacity. Shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz remain a key market focus. During the week, two sulfur vessels carrying approximately 100,000 tons successfully transited the strait, with cargoes destined for southern China and Morocco, respectively. Market participants remain cautious regarding the sustainability of shipping recovery.

The sharp increase in sulfur costs has had a direct impact on the phosphate fertilizer industry. By June 8, the theoretical production cost of monoammonium phosphate (MAP) had increased by approximately RMB 954/ton compared with early June. Based on prevailing market prices of around RMB 4,350/ton, producers relying entirely on high-priced sulfur are facing losses approaching RMB 2,000/ton.

Operating rates have also declined significantly. On June 4, China's MAP capacity utilization rate fell to only 44.43%, down 8.92 percentage points year-on-year, marking one of the lowest levels of the year.

Although the government has released low-cost sulfur supplies to designated strategic producers to alleviate pressure on major manufacturers, the overall industry continues to face severe cost challenges, with most producers still dependent on expensive market-priced sulfur.

2. Sulfuric Acid from Phosphogypsum: An Old Technology Gains New Momentum

In response to soaring sulfur prices, sulfuric acid production from phosphogypsum has emerged as a strategic focus for China's phosphate and fertilizer industries.

The technology itself is not new and has already been successfully commercialized. However, due to historically low sulfur prices and relatively high energy consumption, large-scale deployment had remained economically unattractive.

Industry estimates indicate that projects become economically viable when sulfur prices reach approximately RMB 2,500/ton. With current sulfur prices far exceeding that threshold, the commercial attractiveness of phosphogypsum-based sulfuric acid production has increased dramatically.

China generates and stockpiles massive quantities of phosphogypsum annually. Converting this phosphate industry by-product into sulfuric acid offers multiple benefits:

• Recycling industrial waste and reducing environmental pressure;

• Increasing domestic sulfuric acid supply;

• Reducing dependence on imported sulfur resources;

• Improving long-term sulfur security.

Several commercial plants are already operating successfully, and leading phosphate producers have recently accelerated investments in new projects. Numerous capacity expansion plans have been announced or launched, signaling the beginning of a new investment cycle in phosphogypsum-based sulfuric acid production.

As these projects come online, China's domestic sulfur supply resilience is expected to improve substantially.

3. Global Urea Market: Sharp Correction Returns Prices to Pre-Conflict Levels

International urea prices declined sharply this week, with overall market values falling by more than 30% from recent highs. Most regional markets have now returned to price levels seen before the escalation of Middle East tensions.

Key indicators include:

• Global urea futures benchmark prices fell approximately 6% during the week;

• Prices have declined nearly 28% over the past month;

• Granular urea at New Orleans dropped to around USD 500/ton, down 36% from April highs;

• Middle East FOB urea prices fell to approximately USD 630/ton, although still about 28% above pre-conflict levels.

The correction has also affected fertilizer equities, with shares of major international nitrogen fertilizer producers retreating roughly 20% from their mid-March peaks.

Several factors have contributed to the decline:

• Gradual restoration of production capacity in the Middle East;

• Seasonal demand slowdown in the Northern Hemisphere;

• China's re-entry into international urea export markets;

• Improved navigation conditions through the Strait of Hormuz;

• Reduced concerns over global supply chain disruptions.

Market analysts believe the pace of decline may slow in the coming weeks, with prices potentially stabilizing during July.

Future market direction will largely depend on:

• China's export execution pace;

• Upcoming Indian urea tenders;

• Brazilian procurement demand;

• Energy market developments;

• Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Despite recent corrections, elevated energy costs and ongoing regional instability remain key upside risks for the nitrogen market.

4. Brazil Fertilizer Imports: Sulfur Imports Collapse While Sulfuric Acid Imports Surge

4.1 First Quarter Fertilizer Overview

Brazil received approximately 9.76 million tons of fertilizers during the first quarter of 2026, representing a 3.8% year-on-year increase.

March arrivals reached 2.83 million tons, up 18.7% year-on-year.

Key developments include:

• Mato Grosso remained Brazil's largest fertilizer-consuming state.

• Domestic fertilizer intermediate production totaled 1.41 million tons, down 16.2% year-on-year.

• Imports of fertilizer intermediates reached 8.15 million tons, down 4% compared with the previous year.

• Paranaguá Port continued to serve as Brazil's principal fertilizer import gateway, handling more than one-quarter of the country's fertilizer imports during the quarter.

4.2 Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid Imports (January-May)

Global sulfur shortages and record-high prices have significantly altered Brazil's import patterns.

Sulfur Imports

In May, Brazil imported only 59,100 tons of sulfur, representing:

• A 72% year-on-year decline;

• The lowest monthly import volume in 21 years.

During January–May, cumulative sulfur imports reached 630,100 tons, down 46% year-on-year, marking the lowest level in 17 years.

Major suppliers included:

• Kazakhstan

• United States

• Turkmenistan

Sulfuric Acid Imports

To compensate for sulfur shortages, Brazil substantially increased sulfuric acid imports.

In May:

• Sulfuric acid imports reached 79,800 tons;

• Volumes more than doubled compared with the previous year;

• Imports hit their highest monthly level since 2022.

During January–May:

• Total sulfuric acid imports reached 323,000 tons;

• Up 69% year-on-year.

Major supply origins included:

• Spain

• Finland

• Italy

The sharp divergence between sulfur and sulfuric acid imports highlights how high sulfur prices are reshaping global raw material flows and procurement strategies within the fertilizer industry.

Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW25) | June 8-14, 2026