Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW39) | Sep. 14-21, 2026
Key Products: Urea, Potash, DAP/MAP/MKP, and Related Phosphates
Seven Key Developments to Watch This Week
1. Strait of Hormuz Traffic Declines Again, With Non-Oil Cargo Facing Greater Risks
Only three commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on September 16, down from 12 the previous day. Over the weekend ending September 21, approximately 17 commodity vessels passed through the strait, compared with 37 during the previous weekend.
Some vessels may have switched off their Automatic Identification System (AIS), meaning the figures could understate actual traffic. Nevertheless, the downward trend is clear.
Trade impact: Shipment reliability remains low for Gulf-origin urea, sulfur, sulfuric acid, and other bulk commodities. Crude oil can continue moving through costly shuttle operations and ship-to-ship transfers, but low-value fertilizer cargoes are less able to absorb such costs.
Recommended action: Shorten the validity period of Gulf-origin quotations. Freight, insurance costs, and transit times should be calculated separately for normal-routing and rerouting scenarios.
Priority: Very high.
2. Global Urea Supply Chains Have Shifted, but Supply Recovery Does Not Mean Logistics Have Normalized
International trade data indicate that urea exports from Gulf economies shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen by approximately 85% from pre-war levels. However, total global import volumes have declined by only around 6%, as suppliers including Egypt, Nigeria, Russia, the United States, and China have filled much of the gap.
Egyptian and Nigerian urea exports reportedly increased by approximately 98% and 81%, respectively.
Trade impact: The market has shifted from a straightforward global shortage to regional supply imbalances and freight premiums. Non-Gulf suppliers have gained new opportunities, but small and medium-sized buyers in Africa and Asia continue to face elevated landed costs.
Recommended action: For customers in India, Southeast Asia, and Africa, prioritize assessments of Chinese, Egyptian, and Russian supply. Comparisons should consider route reliability and final CFR costs—not merely FOB prices.
Priority: High.
3. India’s Urea Import Costs Fall Sharply as Chinese Cargoes Enter the Peak Shipping Window
Relevant Indian government data indicate that the country’s landed urea cost averaged approximately USD 406/MT in August, down around 57% from the May peak of USD 947/MT.
Indian state agencies had imported approximately 4.74 million MT of urea, while domestic inventories reached around 7.51 million MT-78% higher year on year.
RCF previously secured 1.7 million MT of imported urea at the following reference prices:
Delivery Region | Reference Contract Price |
India East Coast | USD 390.25/MT CFR |
India West Coast | USD 393.65/MT CFR |
The contracts require shipment by September 24. Public market information indicates that China is expected to supply at least 1.2 million MT of the total volume.
The procurement volume and contract prices can be cross-checked against Indian media reports and government e-procurement records. However, China’s final shipment volume should be confirmed through actual customs data.
Trade impact: The concentration of Chinese cargoes within a short shipping window may temporarily tighten port capacity, inspection resources, and bulk-vessel availability in China. Once the shipments are completed, India may have less incentive to continue bidding prices higher.
Recommended action: Closely verify actual departure volumes around September 24. If shipments fall materially short, India may return with another tender in the fourth quarter. If shipments proceed smoothly, further upside in Asian urea prices could be limited.
Priority: Very high.
4. China’s DAP/MAP Export Policy Still Lacks Clear and Consistent Confirmation
Since the beginning of September, conflicting information has circulated over whether China has fully resumed normal exports of agricultural-grade DAP and MAP.
Some market reports suggest that export declarations may have resumed. However, an early-September S&P Global market survey indicated that producers had not received clear and consistent guidance. Some market participants expect restrictions to remain in place through the winter-stocking season.
As of September 20, China’s domestic phosphate fertilizer market remained generally weak and range-bound. The index for 55% powdered MAP stood at approximately RMB 4,056.25/MT, while the index for 64% granular DAP was approximately RMB 4,563.33/MT on September 14, with no meaningful breakout afterward.
Autumn fertilizer production has generated some demand, but weaker raw-material support and cautious downstream procurement continue to weigh on the market.
Trade impact: Overseas buyers should not assume that market rumors about reopening mean cargoes can be cleared for export without difficulty. DAP and MAP contracts continue to face execution and delivery-timing risks.
Recommended action: Before quoting, verify each producer’s export allocation, commodity inspection, statutory inspection, customs acceptance, and expected clearance schedule. Avoid committing to a fixed sailing date until the export channel has been confirmed.
Priority: Very high.
5. Potash Markets Enter a Regional Correction, Improving Buyers’ Negotiating Position
The latest publicly available weekly market information indicates that MOP prices are weakening across Brazil, the United States, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The main drivers are relatively comfortable supply, slower Brazilian purchasing, and weakening seasonal demand. European standard MOP is assessed at approximately EUR 345–360/MT CIF, while granular MOP is around EUR 350-370/MT CIF.
Southeast Asian tenders continue to provide localized demand support, but not enough to reverse the broader softening trend.
Trade impact: Standard and granular MOP should not be evaluated using the same pricing assumptions. Small-volume Southeast Asian purchases may also continue to command a premium over large-volume markets such as Brazil.
Recommended action: Buyers with no immediate requirement may delay locking in long-term MOP volumes. SOP should be monitored separately because its pricing depends on sulfuric acid, energy costs, and regional supply conditions; the decline in MOP prices should not be applied directly to SOP.
Priority: Medium-high.
6. Egypt Removes Nitrogen Fertilizer Export Duties, Strengthening Alternative Non-Gulf Supply
Under Ministerial Decree No. 340 of 2026, Egypt’s Ministry of Investment and Foreign Trade abolished export duties on nitrogen fertilizers, with the decision retroactively effective from August 1.
The duty was initially set at USD 90/MT and was later revised in June to 10% of the export value. Although the measure did not take effect this week, it was formally disclosed this week and confirmed through Egypt’s official regulatory directory.
Egypt’s fertilizer exports reached approximately USD 1.69 billion in the first half of 2026, up 11.1% year on year. However, as nitrogen fertilizer prices declined from nearly USD 900/MT in April to approximately USD 550/MT, the export duty increasingly undermined the competitiveness of Egyptian products.
Trade impact: Removing the duty will reduce the export cost of Egyptian urea and other nitrogen fertilizers, strengthening their competitiveness in Europe, the Mediterranean, Africa, and Latin America. With Gulf supply disrupted, Egypt could further expand its role as an alternative urea supplier.
Recommended action: Track the latest Egyptian urea FOB prices, natural gas availability, and actual export volumes. Compare the resulting CFR landed costs with Chinese, Russian, and Nigerian supply.
Priority: Medium.
7. Ca Mau Fertilizer’s Export Share Approaches 60%, Potentially Intensifying Southeast Asian Urea Competition
During the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam’s Petrovietnam Ca Mau Fertilizer JSC sold 662,330 MT of urea, including 395,090 MT for export.
Exports represented approximately 59.6% of total urea sales and exceeded domestic sales of 267,240 MT by 47.8%. The company’s eight-month export volume was already 43.7% above its original full-year target of 275,000 MT.
Vietnam’s annual urea demand is estimated at approximately 1.8 million MT, while the country’s four major producers have combined design capacity of around 2.6 million MT. This implies a theoretical surplus of approximately 800,000 MT, encouraging Vietnamese producers to place more volume in overseas markets.
Trade impact: Vietnam is evolving from a regional urea producer into a more active exporter. Vietnamese cargoes may compete directly with Chinese supply in Cambodia, the Philippines, South Korea, and other Southeast Asian markets. Ca Mau Fertilizer’s high export exposure also means its quotations will become increasingly sensitive to international price movements.
Key variable: If disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues, Vietnamese producers may continue benefiting from regional supply premiums. However, if China substantially increases urea exports, additional supply in Southeast Asia could pressure Vietnamese export prices and producer margins.
Recommended action: Monitor Ca Mau Fertilizer’s post-maintenance production recovery, fourth-quarter export quotations, and the volume of Chinese urea entering Southeast Asia. Vietnamese urea can serve as both a regional market indicator and a potential alternative supply source.
Priority: Medium.
Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW39) | Sep. 14-21, 2026
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