Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW38) | Sep. 7 - Sep. 14, 2026
China Set to Supply Around 1.2 Million MT of Urea to India
China is expected to supply approximately 1.2 million MT of urea under India’s latest tender, marking one of the most significant Chinese export flows into the global nitrogen market this year.
India’s state-owned Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF) sought up to 1.7 million MT, with cargoes required to be loaded by September 24.
The lowest reported offers were:
East Coast India: USD 390.25/MT CFR
West Coast India: USD 393.65/MT CFR
More than 1.33 million MT was offered below USD 400/MT CFR, with Chinese prilled urea accounting for a substantial share of available supply.
The contrast with earlier 2026 pricing is striking. During the severe Middle East supply disruption in April, emergency Indian purchases reportedly reached USD 935-959/MT CFR. By June, tender levels had already eased to around USD 445-449/MT CFR before falling below USD 400/MT in the latest round.
Market Impact
India remains one of the world’s most influential urea importers, and its tenders frequently establish a benchmark for international pricing.
The return of substantial Chinese supply has therefore become a major bearish factor for the global nitrogen market, increasing competition among exporters and pushing CFR India values sharply lower.
However, Chinese exports remain subject to domestic supply conditions and policy controls. Any tightening ahead of China’s autumn fertilizer season could quickly reduce export availability again.
Potash Is Becoming an Increasingly Strategic Commodity
Potash is moving beyond its traditional role as an agricultural input and is increasingly becoming part of wider geopolitical and trade negotiations.
The United States has progressively eased sanctions on Belarusian potash producers following agreements involving the release of political prisoners. In March 2026, remaining U.S. sanctions on Belaruskali and Belarusian Potash Company (BPC) were removed as part of another diplomatic agreement with Minsk.
European restrictions, however, remain significantly tighter. Belarus still faces major logistical constraints in using its traditional export corridor through Lithuania and the Baltic Sea, forcing a greater dependence on alternative Russian rail and port routes.
The issue matters because the United States relies on imports for more than 90% of its potash consumption, with Canada by far its largest supplier.
Against the backdrop of growing U.S.–Canada trade tensions, this dependence has gained strategic importance. German policymakers have also reportedly identified U.S. dependence on imported potash as a potential supply-chain vulnerability in broader transatlantic trade negotiations.
Market Impact
Potash fundamentals remain relatively better supplied than phosphates, but geopolitics is becoming increasingly important.
The market is now shaped not only by agricultural demand and production costs, but also by:
Canada–U.S. trade relations
Belarus sanctions policy
European transit restrictions
Russian logistics
and diversification of U.S. fertilizer supply
For a commodity directly linked to food security, this strategic dimension is unlikely to disappear.
China’s Fertilizer Exports Fell 43.9% YoY in August
China exported 2.857 million MT of fertilizers in August 2026, down 43.9% year on year, according to preliminary customs statistics.
From January to August:
Exports
Volume: 21.317 million MT
YoY: −23.7%
Export value: USD 5.18 billion
YoY: −35.5%
August exports alone were valued at USD 718 million, down 61.9% YoY.
Meanwhile, fertilizer imports increased sharply.
January–August Imports
Volume: 12.490 million MT
YoY: +47.7%
Import value: USD 4.688 billion
YoY: +70.8%
China imported 1.473 million MT in August at an average declared CIF price of approximately USD 375.42/MT.
The figures underline an important feature of the 2026 market: although China has returned as a meaningful supplier of urea, its overall fertilizer export availability remains significantly below previous-year levels.
Global Fertilizer Outlook: Nitrogen, Phosphate and Potash Continue to Diverge
Recent market assessments suggest that the three major nutrient groups are entering increasingly different market cycles.
Nitrogen — More Supply, but High Volatility
Chinese urea exports have provided much-needed additional supply and helped pull international prices sharply lower from the extreme levels reached earlier this year.
India remains the key marginal buyer, meaning future tenders are likely to continue driving short-term pricing.
However, Middle East logistics and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain significant risk factors.
Direction: Softer than Q2, but still highly sensitive to geopolitics and Indian demand.
Phosphates — The Tightest Major Nutrient Market
Phosphates remain under the greatest structural pressure.
China’s reduced presence in the phosphate export market, elevated sulfur costs and constrained international supply have kept phosphate fertilizer prices high despite weaker farmer affordability.
RaboResearch estimates its phosphate affordability indicator at approximately −0.59, highlighting the increasing pressure on farmer purchasing power. The institution expects geopolitical risks, raw-material costs and logistics disruptions to continue supporting fertilizer prices over the next 6-12 months.
Direction: Structurally firm, with limited downside unless raw-material availability improves.
Potash — Stable Supply, Softer Demand
Potash remains comparatively balanced.
Buying activity in several major markets has slowed as distributors and farmers work through existing inventories. At the same time, Belarusian supply, Canadian production and emerging capacity continue to provide relatively comfortable availability.
Geopolitical and trade-policy risks, however, are becoming increasingly relevant.
Direction: Fundamentally softer than phosphates, but with growing geopolitical optionality.
OCP to Add 4.5 Million MT of Fertilizer Capacity in 2026
Morocco’s OCP Group is moving forward with one of the largest phosphate fertilizer expansion programs currently underway.
Under its SP2M program, OCP plans to add approximately 4.5 million MT/year of fertilizer production capacity by the end of 2026, followed by a total increase of around 9 million MT/year by 2028.
The expansion is focused particularly on TSP, TSP+ and other phosphate-based fertilizers, supported by new industrial infrastructure including the Mzinda and Meskala hubs.
OCP is reportedly investing approximately USD 5.25 billion in 2026, as part of a broader multi-year investment program.
The expansion comes at a strategically important moment.
With Chinese phosphate exports constrained and global phosphate availability tightening, import-dependent markets including India, Brazil and the United States are increasingly looking toward Morocco as an alternative source of supply.
Market Impact
OCP’s expansion could gradually reshape global phosphate trade flows.
In the short term, phosphate markets are likely to remain tight because new capacity cannot immediately offset raw-material shortages and reduced Chinese exports.
Over the medium term, however, Morocco is positioned to strengthen its role as one of the world’s most important marginal suppliers of phosphate fertilizers.
CW38 Market View
The global fertilizer market is increasingly becoming a three-speed market:
Nitrogen: Chinese exports are restoring supply and pushing prices lower.
Phosphates: Raw-material constraints and limited export availability continue to support historically high prices.
Potash: Supply is relatively comfortable, but the commodity is becoming increasingly important in geopolitical and trade negotiations.
The common theme is clear:
Fertilizer pricing is no longer being determined by agricultural demand alone. Trade policy, sanctions, shipping routes and national food-security strategies are playing an increasingly decisive role in global fertilizer flows.
Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW38) | Sep. 7 - Sep. 14, 2026
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