Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW36) | Aug. 31 – Sep. 4, 2026

Global Food Crisis Risks Are Building

Major financial institutions including JPMorgan and HSBC have warned that the risk of a broader and more prolonged global food crisis is increasing as multiple supply-side pressures converge.

HSBC points to tightening grain supplies, extreme weather and disruptions to major shipping routes. By July, a composite basket of wheat, corn, barley and rice prices had risen around 22% year on year, while prices of key soft commodities such as cocoa and coffee also remained elevated.

Agricultural supply chains are facing pressure from several directions:

• Middle East tensions continue to threaten flows through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting fertilizer and sulfur supply.

• Black Sea disruptions are constraining agricultural and fertilizer trade, while damage to Russian refining infrastructure is adding pressure to diesel costs.

• Extreme weather, including heatwaves and climate anomalies, is raising the risk of lower crop yields and secondary pest and disease outbreaks.

• Export restrictions imposed by some producing countries are further tightening global availability.

USDA forecasts that global grain consumption will exceed production in 2026/27, the first deficit since 2020/21 and potentially the largest supply shortfall since 2006/07. Global stocks-to-use ratios are therefore expected to tighten further.

The key market implication is clear: agricultural commodity prices may enter a period of structurally higher volatility, while food-security risks continue to rise.

China’s July Urea Exports Jump to 403,400 MT

China exported 906,900 MT of urea during January-July 2026, valued at approximately USD 379 million.

July alone accounted for:

• Export volume: 403,400 MT

• Export value: USD 181 million

• Average export price: USD 449/MT

July exports reached 33 countries and regions.

Largest destinations included:

• Nepal: 78,600 MT

• India: 47,500 MT

• Bangladesh: 47,200 MT

• South Korea: 45,200 MT

• Vietnam: 36,900 MT

Among major destinations, Angola recorded the highest average price at approximately USD 540/MT, followed by India at around USD 500/MT.

China’s recovery in urea exports is once again becoming an important factor in regional and global nitrogen-market balances.

India’s NFL Secures 60,000 MT of DAP at Around USD 920/MT CFR

According to Argus, India’s National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) is expected to purchase two 30,000 MT DAP cargoes from Midgulf International.

The reported deferred-payment price is slightly above USD 920/MT CFR, equivalent to a cash price of around USD 910+/MT CFR.

NFL’s tender closed on August 11 and attracted offers from:

• Ameropa

• Oasis Global

• Agrifields

• Midgulf

The cargoes were required to arrive at India’s west coast by August 31. The origin of the DAP has not yet been disclosed, and the transaction remained subject to confirmation from Midgulf.

Meanwhile, Indian importer FACT also concluded a tender for 50,000 MT of DAP, receiving offers involving Moroccan, U.S., Russian and unspecified origins.

The renewed purchasing activity indicates that India is moving into its seasonal fertilizer import window ahead of the October–March Rabi cropping season, providing additional support to the global phosphate market.

Russia Allows Limited Exports of 300,000 MT of Low-Grade Technical Sulfur

Russia has amended its temporary sulfur export ban under Government Resolution No. 1059 dated August 21, 2026, revising the earlier Resolution No. 785 of June 25, 2026.

The amendment introduces a limited exemption for low-grade technical sulfur, Grade 7000, classified under EAEU customs codes:

• 2503 00 100 0

• 2503 00 900 0

Key provisions include:

• Maximum export quota: 300,000 MT

• Export license required: issued by the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade

• Customs classification, rather than product description, will determine whether cargoes qualify for the exemption.

All other provisions of Russia’s temporary sulfur export restrictions remain in force.

The move may provide some additional sulfur availability to the international market, but the quota remains limited relative to global fertilizer-industry demand.

Q2 2026 Fertilizer Earnings: Sulfur Squeezes Phosphate Margins While Potash Remains Resilient

Second-quarter results from major global fertilizer producers highlight a widening divergence between fertilizer segments.

High sulfur costs have severely compressed phosphate margins, while potash earnings remain comparatively resilient thanks to firm pricing and tight inventories.

Yara: Stronger Nitrogen Margins

Yara reported Q2 adjusted EBITDA of USD 906 million, up 39% year on year.

Improved nitrogen margins offset a 17% decline in crop-nutrition deliveries, while return on invested capital reached 14.3%.

Urea prices remained elevated during Q2 amid Middle East supply risks and restrictions on Chinese exports. European deliveries were stable, while lower urea imports helped Yara gain regional market share.

The company is also acquiring a Texas ammonia plant for USD 1.3 billion, adding approximately 1.3 million MT/year of capacity.

The main risk remains geopolitical disruption to nitrogen and phosphate supply heading into the Northern Hemisphere fertilizer season.

Mosaic: Phosphate Losses, Potash Supported by Pricing

Mosaic’s phosphate business recorded a Q2 net loss of USD 273 million, largely due to sharply higher sulfur costs.

Potash remained the main earnings contributor despite lower production and sales:

• Sales: 2.0 million MT, down 13%

• Production: 1.8 million MT, down 14%

• Adjusted EBITDA: USD 278 million

• Mine-gate average price: USD 275/MT

Cash production costs increased to USD 84/MT, but stronger potash pricing helped offset higher operating expenses.

Mosaic Biosciences is also becoming a growing strategic business, with more than 12 formulations in its portfolio and five new products launched during the first half of 2026.

Nutrien: Potash Orders Fully Booked for Q3

Higher sulfur costs pushed Nutrien’s phosphate segment into negative margins, with gross margin falling to approximately –USD 31/MT.

Potash performance remained strong:

• Production: 3.996 million MT

• Sales: 3.943 million MT

• Net sales: +6% YoY

• Gross profit: +10% YoY

With global inventories relatively tight and restocking underway, Canpotex has fully committed its Q3 sales volumes.

Nutrien continues to forecast global potash shipments of 74-77 million MT in 2026.

ICL: Higher Potash Volumes and Prices

ICL reported strong Q2 potash performance:

• Production: 1.058 million MT, +10.6%

• Sales: 1.081 million MT, +11.3%

• Average selling price: USD 376/MT, +13%

• Segment sales: +22%

• EBITDA: +34%

Demand from China, India and Brazil remained strong.

However, Middle East tensions pushed ocean freight costs up sharply, while appreciation of the Israeli shekel increased domestic operating costs.

Market Takeaway

The Q2 earnings season shows a clear structural split:

Sulfur-linked phosphate producers are facing severe margin pressure, while potash producers continue to benefit from tighter inventories, resilient demand and supportive pricing.

U.S. - Canada Trade Tensions Put Potash in the Spotlight

U.S. - Canada trade tensions have escalated after months of negotiations, with both countries imposing or threatening significant tariffs on selected goods.

Energy, potash and several critical minerals are currently outside the main tariff scope, but Canadian policymakers have increasingly discussed the possibility of using strategic commodities, including oil, natural gas and potash, as negotiating leverage.

The implications for fertilizer markets are significant.

Canada is the world’s largest potash producer and exporter, producing around 15 million MT in 2024.

The United States imports more than 90% of its potash requirements, with approximately 79% sourced from Canada.

The two countries are deeply integrated across the fertilizer supply chain:

• The U.S. is highly dependent on Canadian potash.

• Canada relies heavily on U.S. phosphate supply.

• New U.S. potash capacity would require many years to develop at meaningful scale.

Any tariffs or restrictions affecting Canadian potash could therefore raise fertilizer costs for U.S. farmers and disrupt the broader North American fertilizer market.

Given already elevated geopolitical risks and farm-cost pressures, potash is increasingly becoming not only an agricultural input, but also a strategic trade and resource-security asset.

CW36 Market Signals

This week’s developments point to four major themes shaping the fertilizer market:

1. Food-security risks are returning to the center of commodity markets. Tightening grain balances could support fertilizer demand even as affordability remains a constraint.

2. Nitrogen trade flows are shifting again. China’s stronger urea exports are adding supply, while geopolitical risks continue to create price volatility.

3. Phosphate margins remain under severe pressure. High sulfur costs are squeezing producers even as Indian DAP demand strengthens.

4. Potash remains fundamentally resilient. Tight inventories, seasonal restocking and geopolitical trade risks continue to support the market.

Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW36) | Aug. 31 – Sep. 4, 2026