Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW41) | Sep. 28- Oct. 5, 2026
Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid Prices Weaken, Leaving Sulfur-Based Acid Producers Facing Widespread Losses
1. Market Prices and Producer Margins
Sulfur and sulfuric acid prices both declined in late September. As of September 24, spot sulfuric acid prices stood at RMB 1,737.5/MT, down 5.57% week on week, with prices in parts of Anhui, Hubei and Jiangxi falling below RMB 1,000/MT. Domestic sulfur averaged RMB 7,606/MT, posting a slight daily rebound despite subdued trading.
High sulfur feedstock costs and falling sulfuric acid prices have squeezed sulfur-based acid producers into losses. Many have reduced operating rates or turned to toll processing to maintain production.
Smelter acid producers, benefiting from lower by-product feedstock costs, have offered more competitive prices. The widening price gap has encouraged downstream buyers to switch from sulfur-based acid to smelter acid, further weakening sales for sulfur-burning producers.
2. Ample Supply and Weak Demand Drive Sulfuric Acid Prices Lower
Ample supply: The suspension of sulfuric acid exports in May redirected export volumes into the domestic market. Limited maintenance during the third quarter and high operating rates at smelters and acid plants contributed to excess supply.
Weak demand: Titanium dioxide producers operated at just 68.66% capacity utilization, while announced price increases struggled to gain acceptance. Demand from phosphate fertilizers and conventional chemical industries remained weak. Acid demand associated with lithium iron phosphate production was the main resilient segment.
Profitability has diverged across the value chain. Smelter acid producers reported strong earnings in the first half, but conditions deteriorated rapidly as acid prices fell in the second half.
3. Sulfur: Imports Contract Sharply as International Prices Exceed Domestic Levels
China imported 2.9186 million MT of sulfur in January–August 2026, down 59.56% year on year. August imports totaled 272,300 MT, falling 29.35% month on month. Market analysts expect September imports to reach another low.
Reasons for the decline: Middle East geopolitical tensions constrained overseas supply and supported international sulfur prices. Weak domestic demand and unfavorable import economics discouraged purchases and slowed trading.
Price support: Low port inventories and shrinking imports provide a floor for sulfur prices. However, weak operating rates in the phosphate fertilizer sector limit the potential for a strong spot-market rally, leaving further downside possible.
4. Outlook
Sulfur: Weak demand and expectations of easing Middle East tensions suggest greater downside than upside, although low inventories and reduced imports should limit the decline.
Sulfuric acid: Prices are expected to remain under pressure in October, with regional differences reflecting maintenance schedules and downstream operating rates.
Industry: Margins are being redistributed across the value chain. Sulfur costs remain high, acid producers face falling selling prices, and downstream fertilizer and titanium dioxide manufacturers remain under pressure. Winter stockbuilding and concentrated maintenance in the fourth quarter could temporarily improve the supply-demand balance, but weak domestic and overseas demand suggest the industry is still searching for a bottom.
Egypt Plans Five Fertilizer Projects, Adding 2-3 Million MT of Annual Output Within Three Years
Speaking at the 36th Sahara International Agricultural Exhibition, El-Gabaly, Vice Chairman of Egypt’s Chemical and Fertilizer Export Council, said Egypt plans to attract approximately USD 3 billion in new fertilizer investment.
Five major projects involving Chinese, Indian and Egyptian capital are expected to increase annual fertilizer production by 2–3 million MT over the next three years.
Additional output will first support domestic food security, with surplus volumes exported. Fertilizers are Egypt’s second-largest export category, accounting for 7% of non-oil exports and reaching more than 100 countries.
Dangote Plans Fertilizer IPO and Targets 12 Million MT of Annual Urea Capacity
Dangote Group CEO Aliko Dangote announced plans to list the fertilizer business separately in 2028, aiming to build the world’s largest fertilizer company.
The expansion would increase annual urea capacity from 3 million MT to 12 million MT. The group also plans to develop potash and phosphate resources and build a 2.2 million MT/year diammonium phosphate (DAP) plant.
The expanded business could meet more than 40% of Africa’s fertilizer demand. The group is also pursuing a refinery listing and plans to double refining capacity.
Nepal Secures NPR 10 Billion for Fertilizer Procurement
Nepal has approved NPR 10 billion in fertilizer procurement funding through its Ministry of Finance. The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment is advancing tenders to secure supplies for the planting season.
For fiscal year 2083/84, the total fertilizer procurement budget is NPR 32.46 billion, with planned purchases of 550,000 MT.
As of September 17, tenders covering 240,000 MT had been initiated. The cabinet also approved the Agriculture Inputs Company’s import of 25,000 MT of DAP for winter use.
EuroChem Expands Potash Capacity, Targeting 5.2-5.4 Million MT per Year
EuroChem founder Andrey Melnichenko disclosed that the company will invest RUB 200 billion, approximately USD 2.2 billion, during 2025-2029 to upgrade and expand its Usolskiy potash complex in the Perm region.
1. Upgrading Existing Facilities
Processing plant upgrades are scheduled for completion by the end of 2026, increasing annual potassium chloride capacity from 2.9 million MT to 3.4 million MT.
The complex produced 3 million MT of potassium chloride in 2025, including 2.1 million MT of premium granular potash. Production in 2026 is expected to exceed the previous year’s level. Construction of the third shaft is also progressing.
2. Phase II Expansion
The new Phase II plant, with 1.8 million MT/year of potassium chloride capacity, is scheduled to start operations in 2028 and reach full production in 2029.
Once fully operational, the complex’s total capacity will reach 5.2 million MT/year, with further technical improvements potentially raising it to 5.4 million MT/year.
The project began in 2018, and Phase I entered production in 2021 with an initial capacity of 2.3 million MT/year, later expanded to 2.9 million MT.
The full expansion will nearly double capacity and strengthen EuroChem’s position in the global potash market. The company also operates the VolgaKaliy potash project in Volgograd.
Urea Shipments Through the Strait of Hormuz Fall 85%: How Has the Global Fertilizer Market Absorbed the Shock?
1. Supply Chains Shift Quickly, Avoiding a Global Fertilizer Shortage
According to International Trade Centre (ITC) data, urea shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fell 85% from pre-conflict levels following the Middle East conflict.
Alternative suppliers increased shipments by more than 25%, limiting the decline in total global fertilizer imports to 6% and helping avert a global food crisis.
The ITC warned that shipping disruptions have increased overall procurement costs. For developing countries, the central challenge has shifted from fertilizer availability to affordability.
2. The Strait’s Trade Role and Rising Import Costs
Before the conflict, approximately one-third of global nitrogen fertilizer trade, including urea and ammonia, as well as sulfur used in phosphate fertilizer production, passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Average urea import prices rose 70% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, while ammonia and sulfur prices also increased.
India: Urea prices reached approximately USD 950/MT in May, before falling by more than half to around USD 400/MT.
Brazil: Urea import costs rose 56%, while sulfur costs surged 176%. Total fertilizer import volumes declined by more than one-third.
3. Expensive Fertilizers Remain a Long-Term Threat to Food Security
Alternative supplies have helped offset disrupted trade flows in the short term. However, CRU analysts warn that three structural risks remain: high fertilizer prices, elevated freight costs and geographically concentrated supply chains.
For developing countries heavily dependent on imported nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, affordability now matters as much as physical availability in determining agricultural production and food security.
Questions for further discussion:
What are the long-term effects of fertilizer supply disruptions on global food security?
How can global fertilizer supply chains become more resilient to future disruptions?
How have Middle East supply disruptions affected agriculture and food security in different countries?
Pakistan Fertilizers: Weak August Consumption Followed by a 23% Rise in September Urea Sales
Pakistan’s urea sales reached 527,000 MT between September 1 and 26, 2026. With several days remaining in the month, sales had already exceeded the 428,000 MT recorded in the whole of September 2025, representing an increase of approximately 23%.
Topline Securities described the figures as preliminary in a fertilizer update posted on X.
Sales by producer were:
Producer | Urea Sales |
FFC | 218,000 MT |
Engro | 193,000 MT |
Fatima | 92,000 MT |
Agritech | 25,000 MT |
Total industry urea inventories stood at 640,000 MT, including 500,000 MT held by Engro and 100,000 MT by FFC.
Pakistan’s fertilizer consumption was weaker in August 2026. Total fertilizer nutrient consumption declined 15.2% year on year to 450,000 MT.
August urea consumption fell 14.2% to 701,000 MT, while DAP consumption declined 7.9% to 126,000 MT.
Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW41) | Sep. 28- Oct. 5, 2026
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