Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW43) | October 12-19, 2026

Key Focus: China's Fertilizer Trade Policy, Brazil's Nitrogen Supply, China's Export Performance, Sulfur Fertilizer Demand, and Russian Potash Logistics

1. China Sets 2027 Fertilizer Import Tariff Quota at 13.65 Million Tons

China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) has announced its fertilizer import tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) for 2027, maintaining the total allocation at 13.65 million metric tons (MMT), unchanged from 2026.

The quotas cover three major fertilizer categories: urea, diammonium phosphate (DAP), and NPK compound fertilizers.

2027 Fertilizer Import Quota Allocation

Product	Total Quota	State Trading	Non-State Trading
Urea	3.30 MMT	2.97 MMT	0.33 MMT
DAP	6.90 MMT	3.52 MMT	3.38 MMT
NPK Compound Fertilizers	3.45 MMT	1.76 MMT	1.69 MMT
Total	13.65 MMT	8.25 MMT	5.40 MMT

The allocation will continue on a first-come, first-served basis, with applications for 2027 quota certificates opening on December 15, 2026.

Fertilizers imported within the approved quotas are subject to a 1% tariff under the specified tariff classifications.

Market Implications

The unchanged quota volumes indicate policy continuity rather than an expansion of China's fertilizer import capacity. For international suppliers, actual market access will continue to depend on quota utilization, domestic demand, and the purchasing strategies of approved importers.

The relatively large non-state allocation for DAP and NPK compound fertilizers also maintains opportunities for eligible private-sector importers.

2. Brazil's Fertilizer Imports Slow Sharply as Nitrogen Supply Risks Intensify

Brazil, one of the world's largest fertilizer import markets, is experiencing a significant slowdown in fertilizer purchases amid elevated prices, financial pressure on farmers, and continued disruptions to global nitrogen supply.

According to Farmnews, Brazil imported approximately 3.10 MMT of fertilizers in September 2026, down 28.3% year on year.

During January–August 2026, cumulative fertilizer imports reached just 25.37 MMT, the lowest comparable level since 2023. The average import price increased to USD 394.47/MT, its highest level for the period since 2022.

Urea imports remained particularly weak despite some recovery in September.

Key Market Developments

• Weak urea demand: Brazil imported approximately 3.53 MMT of urea during January–September, the lowest comparable volume since 2018.

• Elevated prices: Urea prices reached around USD 500/MT CFR in mid-to-late September, discouraging additional spot purchases.

• Middle Eastern disruptions: Supply interruptions linked to the US–Iran conflict continue to constrain shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Alternative nitrogen sources: Ammonium sulfate imports increased by 2% year on year to nearly 2.9 MMT during January–July.

• Changing supplier structure: Baltic-origin urea shipments increased by approximately one-third during January–August, while combined arrivals from Algeria and Nigeria declined by 42%.

Brazil traditionally enters a strong urea purchasing season in Q4. According to Profercy, the country would need to import more than 4 MMT of urea during the final quarter to match its 2025 annual import volume.

This requirement appears increasingly challenging given supply disruptions, high prices, and cautious purchasing behavior.

Market Implications

Brazil faces a difficult balance between fertilizer affordability and supply security.

Higher nitrogen costs may encourage substitution between urea and ammonium sulfate where agronomically appropriate. However, changes in fertilizer sources cannot fully eliminate the risks associated with limited product availability.

For international suppliers, Brazil's Q4 procurement season may create opportunities, particularly for producers with reliable logistics and competitive nitrogen fertilizer portfolios.

3. China's Fertilizer Trade Shows Diverging Trends: Urea Exports and Potash Imports Surge

China's fertilizer trade structure continued to shift during the first nine months of 2026, with stronger urea exports, sharply reduced phosphate fertilizer shipments, and substantial growth in potassium chloride imports.

According to the customs figures cited in the original industry report, China exported approximately 6.13 MMT of fertilizers in September 2026, including 2.45 MMT of urea and 2.85 MMT of ammonium sulfate.

Fertilizer Exports: January–September 2026

Total exports reached approximately 27.45 MMT, down 17.7% year on year, while export value declined 30.6% to USD 6.865 billion.

Performance varied significantly by product:

Product	Export Volume	YoY Change
Urea	3.88 MMT	+38.0%
Ammonium Sulfate	16.19 MMT	+6.9%
DAP	0.07 MMT	−97.1%
MAP	0.11 MMT	−90.9%

The sharp decline in MAP and DAP exports highlights the continued restrictions affecting China's phosphate fertilizer export market.

Fertilizer Imports: January–September 2026

Potassium chloride (MOP) imports reportedly reached 12.80 MMT, up 47.7% year on year.

NPK compound fertilizer imports totaled approximately 0.87 MMT, representing a modest increase of 1%.

China's stronger dependence on imported potash reflects its limited domestic potassium resources and the importance of securing raw materials for agricultural fertilizer production.

Market Implications

China's fertilizer trade increasingly reflects product-specific policy priorities rather than uniform export growth.

While urea and ammonium sulfate continue to serve international markets, the substantial contraction in phosphate fertilizer exports indicates tighter availability of Chinese phosphate products for overseas buyers.

Meanwhile, strong MOP imports may support domestic supply security, although elevated inventories could also put pressure on local pricing.

For international fertilizer manufacturers and distributors, the key consideration is to monitor individual product categories rather than relying solely on China's aggregate fertilizer trade figures.

Data note: September and January-September export figures are reproduced from the supplied industry report and remain subject to primary customs-data confirmation. Independent reporting confirms the strong increase in China's potash imports through August 2026.

4. Global Sulfur Fertilizer Market Projected to Reach USD 6.07 Billion by 2030

The global sulfur fertilizer market is expected to maintain steady growth as agricultural producers increasingly recognize the importance of balanced crop nutrition and soil health.

According to market research published through Research and Markets, the industry is projected to expand from approximately USD 4.87 billion in 2025 to USD 5.07 billion in 2026, reaching USD 6.07 billion by 2030, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6% over the forecast period.

Several structural factors are supporting this development:

• Balanced fertilization: Greater recognition of sulfur as an essential macronutrient for crop growth, nitrogen metabolism, and protein synthesis.

• Growing demand from oilseeds and pulses: Crops with relatively high sulfur requirements are encouraging more targeted nutrient management.

• Expansion of fertigation and foliar feeding: Modern application systems are creating demand for soluble and readily available sulfur sources.

• Soil health management: Increased awareness of sulfur deficiencies is encouraging growers to incorporate sulfur into long-term fertilization programs.

Sulfur-containing fertilizers, including ammonium sulfate, potassium sulfate (SOP), and magnesium sulfate, are expected to remain important components of balanced nutrient management.

Market Implications

The growth outlook highlights opportunities for both conventional sulfur fertilizers and specialty water-soluble nutrient products.

For manufacturers of water-soluble fertilizers and NPK formulations, integrating sulfur with nitrogen, magnesium, or potassium can provide additional formulation flexibility and agronomic value.

However, the projected expansion represents a long-term market forecast rather than a guarantee of sustained price increases or stronger demand in every region.

5. Russian Potash Exports Face Growing Pressure from Rail and Port Congestion

Russia's potash export sector is facing increasing logistical challenges as railway capacity constraints and congestion at Baltic ports disrupt fertilizer shipments.

Rather than production capacity alone, transportation availability has become an increasingly important factor affecting near-term export volumes.

Industry reporting indicates that Russian potash producers have been considering production reductions of approximately 20–25% due to difficulties moving products to export terminals.

These constraints have intensified as grain exports compete with fertilizers and other bulk commodities for railway wagons, terminal storage space, and available berths.

Key Developments

• Potential production adjustments: Russian muriate of potash (MOP) producers have reportedly considered curtailing output as export logistics tighten.

• Railway congestion: Grain, fertilizers, coal, and other bulk commodities are competing for limited transportation capacity.

• Baltic port pressure: Facilities serving Vysotsk, Ust-Luga, and St. Petersburg are facing additional demand from redirected grain shipments.

• Delayed deliveries: Port and railway congestion is affecting fertilizer export schedules and reducing near-term shipment reliability.

S&P Global reported in October that increased grain movements through Baltic ports were causing significant fertilizer loading delays, with some urea shipments delayed by one week to a month.

Although the direct impact varies by product and terminal, these developments underscore the vulnerability of Russian fertilizer exports to shared transportation infrastructure.

Market Implications

Persistent logistics constraints could reduce the availability of Russian MOP in international markets, particularly if production curtailments become prolonged.

Potential consequences include greater competition for alternative potash supplies, increased uncertainty around shipment schedules, and additional freight and inventory-management costs.

For fertilizer importers, diversifying supply origins and securing reliable shipment arrangements may become increasingly important.

Market Outlook

The latest developments highlight five important trends shaping international fertilizer trade:

China: Import tariff quotas remain stable for 2027, while export availability continues to differ significantly between nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.

Brazil: Weak purchasing activity and disrupted nitrogen supply chains are increasing uncertainty ahead of the traditional Q4 import season.

International trade: China's fertilizer export composition continues to shift, with particularly pronounced changes in phosphate products and potash imports.

Specialty fertilizers: The projected expansion of the sulfur fertilizer market points to growing interest in balanced nutrition and higher-value nutrient formulations.

Russia: Rail and port congestion is adding a logistical risk premium to fertilizer supply chains, potentially affecting potash availability and delivery reliability.

Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW43) | October 12-19, 2026