Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW26) | June 16-22, 2026

I. New Strait of Hormuz Shipping Regulations Introduce Structural Disruptions to Global Fertilizer Logistics

Following the signing of a temporary peace agreement between the United States and Iran, Iran introduced a new navigation policy for the Strait of Hormuz. Under the new framework, the Persian Gulf Strait Administration (PGSA) has been designated as the sole authority responsible for vessel transit approvals. All vessels are now required to submit navigation declarations through the official PGSA platform and are only permitted to navigate through designated routes along the Iranian coastline.

As a result, several vessels that had not completed the required registration procedures were forced to turn back mid-voyage, significantly reducing transit efficiency for fertilizer bulk carriers.

The policy includes a temporary 60-day waiver of certain transit-related fees, but according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, additional specialized war-risk and navigation insurance charges may be introduced in the future. Relevant policy documents have reportedly been submitted to the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

As one of the world’s largest fertilizer importers, India has moved aggressively to secure incoming fertilizer supplies. Authorities have identified 34 vessels awaiting evacuation, including:

• 15 fertilizer bulk carriers

• 1 ammonia carrier

The government plans to continue utilizing naval escort operations to facilitate phased vessel movements.

MarineTraffic data indicates that the Hong Kong-flagged 50,000-ton urea vessel "Josco Shunzhou" has successfully transited the Strait and is expected to arrive at Krishnapatnam Port, India, on June 27.

Most other fertilizer vessels remain anchored west of the Strait, including:

• 8 urea vessels carrying approximately 330,000 tons 

• 4 DAP vessels carrying 257,000 tons 

• 3 sulfur vessels carrying 110,000 tons 

• 1 ammonia vessel carrying 25,000 tons 

Despite the logistical disruptions, India currently maintains comfortable fertilizer inventories.

For the 2026 monsoon cropping season:

• Total fertilizer demand is estimated at 38.4 million tons 

• Current inventories stand at 19.6 million tons 

• Inventory coverage exceeds 50% of annual demand 

• Significantly above the generally accepted 33% strategic safety threshold 

Since the onset of regional tensions, nearly 4 million tons of fertilizers have already been imported through alternative routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

Major supply origins include:

Urea

• Oman

• Russia

• Vietnam

Phosphate Fertilizers & Compound Fertilizers

• Morocco

• Egypt

• United States

An additional 2.5 million tons of fertilizer imports are expected to arrive in India during June.

II. Middle East Sulfur FOB Prices Reach Historic Highs, Further Pressuring Phosphate Fertilizer Costs

Driven by shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and tightening global sulfur availability, Middle Eastern sulfur prices surged sharply in June, reaching new record highs according to Argus assessments.

ADNOC (Abu Dhabi)

Ruwais Port Sulfur FOB Price (Indian Subcontinent Market)

• USD 860/MT FOB 

• Up USD 100/MT month-on-month

• Exceeding the previous 2008 historical peak by approximately USD 40-60/MT 

QatarEnergy

Ras Laffan Sulfur FOB Price

• USD 805/MT FOB 

• Up USD 65/MT 

Estimated landed costs now reach:

Market	Estimated CFR Cost
India	USD 1,000–1,002/MT
China	USD 959–975/MT

When combined with elevated freight rates and additional war-risk insurance premiums, sulfur costs continue to place significant pressure on phosphate fertilizer producers worldwide.

The surge in Middle Eastern prices has also lifted North American sulfur values:

Vancouver Sulfur FOB

• USD 990-1,100/MT

This has increasingly positioned North America as an alternative sourcing destination for global sulfur buyers.

China remains particularly exposed to sulfur price volatility:

• Sulfur import dependency exceeds 50% 

• More than half of imports originate from the Middle East

Consequently, sustained sulfur price inflation continues to compress margins across China's phosphate fertilizer industry.

III. China's Autumn Fertilizer Market Enters Early Pricing Cycle as Phosphate Costs Drive Upstream Inflation

Domestic pricing guidance for both urea and phosphate fertilizers was raised during June, officially launching the pre-season pricing cycle for China’s autumn wheat fertilizer market.

Phosphate Fertilizers Become the Primary Cost Driver

Raw material markets are showing divergent trends:

Urea

• Traditional off-season period

• Adequate supply availability

• Q3 price increases remain limited

Potash

• Supply-demand balance remains stable

• Prices largely unchanged

Phosphate Fertilizers

• Strongly impacted by sulfur inflation

• Two consecutive rounds of price increases recorded

Recent cumulative increases include:

• 55% MAP: + RMB 600/MT

• 64% DAP: + RMB 700/MT

Since wheat basal fertilizer formulations are typically phosphate-intensive, manufacturers have accelerated phosphate procurement and inventory locking strategies, effectively eliminating downward pricing pressure on compound fertilizers.

High-phosphate fertilizer formulations have already seen corresponding increases in factory pricing.

Industry Maintains Cautious Inventory Strategy

The summer application gap has led to reduced operating rates across China's compound fertilizer industry.

Current market conditions include:

• Small and medium-sized producers entering maintenance cycles

• Large producers lowering operating rates

• Industry-wide utilization rates declining

Unlike previous years, distributors are avoiding aggressive forward purchasing.

Current purchasing behavior is characterized by:

• Low inventories

• Fast inventory turnover

• Strong wait-and-see sentiment

Should replenishment activity become concentrated later in the season, price volatility could increase significantly.

Market Outlook

Autumn fertilizer pre-sales have already begun.

Supported by phosphate fertilizer costs, opening prices are generally higher than last year, with phosphate-rich wheat fertilizers experiencing the most significant increases.

However, uncertainty remains due to:

• Geopolitical developments

• Sulfur and phosphate raw material volatility

• End-user affordability constraints

Some manufacturers have begun reducing phosphate content in formulations to stabilize prices.

As a result, the market is expected to remain in a high-level consolidation phase throughout Q3, with ongoing competition between production costs and farmer purchasing power.

IV. China Releases January-May Fertilizer Trade Data as Global Urea Market Continues to Weaken

1. China Fertilizer Export Statistics (January-May 2026)

China exported a cumulative:

• 14.36 million tons of fertilizers 

• Up 11.9% year-on-year 

Export value reached:

• USD 3.347 billion 

• Up 23.4% year-on-year 

Key product performance:

Product	Export Volume	YoY Change
Urea	500,000 MT	+4,415.3%
Ammonium Sulfate	8.37 million MT	+20.0%
MAP	110,000 MT	+22.4%
DAP	20,000 MT	-79.6%

On the import side:

Product	Import Volume	YoY Change
Potassium Chloride (MOP)	7.42 million MT	+31.8%
NPK Compound Fertilizer	470,000 MT	+4.5%

Long-term import contracts continue to play a critical role in stabilizing China's domestic potash supply.

2. Why Global Urea Prices Are Expected to Remain Under Pressure

Several bearish factors continue to weigh on the international urea market:

India Tender Prices Have Collapsed

• June tender prices fell below USD 450/MT 

• Compared with levels above USD 900/MT in April

• Nearly a 50% decline

• Purchase volume reached 1.7 million tons 

• No immediate follow-up tenders expected

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Gradually Normalizing

As shipping restrictions ease, accumulated Middle Eastern urea cargoes are expected to enter international markets simultaneously, increasing near-term supply pressure.

China Releases Additional Export Volumes

China approved approximately:

• 3 million tons of urea export quota 

• Released in late May

Additional export cargoes continue entering overseas markets.

Seasonal Demand Weakening

The spring and early summer fertilizer application season is ending across much of the Northern Hemisphere.

Major consuming regions including:

• Europe

• North America

• China

are unlikely to enter their next major procurement cycle until October.

Demand support therefore remains limited in the short term.

Market Outlook

With increasing export availability, recovering logistics flows, softer seasonal demand, and declining tender prices, the global urea market is expected to remain under downward pressure during the coming weeks. Unless significant geopolitical disruptions re-emerge or production outages occur, international urea prices are likely to continue trending lower in the near term.

Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW26) | June 16-22, 2026