Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW28) | June 30-July 6, 2026

Yang Wu
1 day ago
3 min read

Phosphate Tightness Persists as Nitrogen Markets Cool After Hormuz Reopening

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased the most visible logistics pressure in the fertilizer market. However, it does not mean that all fertilizer segments are returning to normal at the same pace.

A clear divergence is emerging between nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.

Nitrogen markets are reacting quickly as geopolitical risk premiums fade. With better liquidity and more transparent trading, prices have corrected more directly.

Phosphate markets are different. The sector remains constrained by sulfur shortages, limited tradable volume and weak price discovery. Many phosphate producers are still operating at reduced rates or remain suspended due to raw material pressure. As a result, phosphate fertilizer prices may not fully reflect the actual tightness of supply.

For the next 6-9 months, the key signal for phosphates will not be short-term price movement, but actual available volume. If sulfur supply improves, delayed demand may trigger concentrated restocking. If high prices persist, some demand may be permanently lost as farmers reduce application rates.

Brazil’s MAP market already reflects this pattern: trading has slowed, liquidity is weak and buyers may only return when prices fall enough to reactivate demand.

Brazil: Emergency Supply Talks with Russia, China and Morocco

Brazil has set up a crisis committee under the President’s Office to secure phosphate fertilizer raw materials for the 2026/27 planting season.

The government is negotiating with Russia, China and Morocco to stabilize supply at market prices.

Brazil’s fertilizer dependence remains highly exposed:

2025 fertilizer consumption: 49.1 million tonnes
2025 fertilizer imports: 45.5 million tonnes
Import dependence: 92%
Import value: USD 14.5 billion
Next season’s purchasing progress: only 40-45%

Industry groups have warned of possible shortages in phosphate fertilizers, sulfur and sulfuric acid. Brazil relies almost entirely on imported sulfur, and tight supply has already forced some processing plants to cut or suspend production.

Fertilizer imports through Paranaguá Port fell nearly 45% year on year in the first four months of 2026, affected by Middle East logistics disruptions and high financing costs.

Thailand: Import Dependence Increases Supply Risk

Thailand is fully dependent on imported fertilizers, leaving around 16 million farmers highly exposed to global price volatility and geopolitical shocks.

Fertilizer prices have nearly doubled, while fertilizer costs now account for almost 40% of total farming expenses. This has placed heavy pressure on farm profitability.

Past government measures, including price controls and small subsidies, have had limited effect. Industry leaders are now calling for deeper structural reforms, including:

Wider use of organic fertilizers
Revision of the outdated 1975 Fertilizer Act
Stronger regional fertilizer supply channels
Reduced reliance on unstable international supply routes

In this context, China is becoming an increasingly important fertilizer supplier for Thailand, especially for short- to medium-term supply stability.

United States: Tariff Relief for Moroccan Phosphates

The Trump administration has announced a fertilizer supply national emergency and suspended tariffs and estimated duty deposits on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer imports for up to eight months, or until the emergency ends.

The White House said the measure is intended to ensure sufficient phosphate fertilizer supply for American farmers.

The announcement reflects growing concern over phosphate availability. According to the administration, global phosphate supply chains have been disrupted by conflicts in major producing regions and trade measures introduced by key fertilizer-producing countries.

U.S. domestic phosphate capacity is also not enough to fully meet agricultural demand after exports are deducted. While the government is working with private companies to expand local capacity, meaningful production growth will take time.

A Texas A&M study estimated that countervailing duties increased DAP prices by nearly 29% and added around USD 6.9 billion in phosphate fertilizer costs for U.S. crop producers during the 2021–2025 growing seasons.

Sulfur: QatarEnergy Raises July FOB Price to USD 890/t

QatarEnergy raised its July Qatar Sulfur Price by USD 85/t, from USD 805/t to USD 890/t FOB Ras Laffan/Mesaieed.

Freight to Chinese ports was quoted at USD 125-140/t for 30,000-35,000 tonne cargoes. This implies a CFR China cost of around USD 1,015-1,030/t before additional insurance premiums.

Although more than 800,000 tonnes of previously loaded Middle Eastern sulfur cargoes have moved through the Strait of Hormuz, most were term volumes or cargoes sold earlier. Spot supply remains extremely limited, with only a few Middle Eastern cargoes available in the hands of traders.

The sulfur market therefore remains tight, even as shipping conditions improve.