Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW29) | July 6 -13, 2026

Weekly Overview

The global fertilizer market showed a clear divergence this week. Nitrogen fertilizer prices declined sharply, while phosphate fertilizers continued to strengthen under firm cost support from sulfur feedstocks.

India has entered the fertilizer stocking period for the Kharif monsoon season. At the same time, soaring costs for water-soluble fertilizers and phosphoric acid are placing considerable pressure on industry margins.

Meanwhile, the development schedule of a Chinese-invested overseas potash project has become clearer, while several South and Southeast Asian markets have released new fertilizer import requirements. These developments may create a temporary window for adjustments in regional fertilizer trade flows.

I. India: Water-Soluble Fertilizer Prices Rise 60%, While Q3 Phosphoric Acid Contract Price Jumps 25%

1. Water-Soluble Fertilizer Costs Surge, Increasing the Risk of Demand Substitution

Prices for certain specialty water-soluble fertilizer raw materials in India have increased by as much as 100%, while downstream selling prices are approximately 60% higher year on year. Import availability also remains constrained.

The price of monoammonium phosphate, a key raw material, has risen from approximately USD 1,000/MT to USD 1,500–1,600/MT. Industry organizations attribute the increase primarily to a combination of global export restrictions and geopolitical disruptions affecting Middle Eastern shipping routes.

India’s annual demand for water-soluble fertilizers is estimated at approximately 400,000 MT. Domestic production capacity remains insufficient, leaving the country heavily dependent on imports from Russia and other suppliers.

Excessive rainfall during last year’s monsoon season weakened fertilizer demand and left some carryover inventories, temporarily easing the supply shortage. However, demand is expected to rise significantly during the third-quarter Kharif planting season. Once existing inventories are depleted, both supply and logistics bottlenecks may emerge.

Indian farmers are highly sensitive to fertilizer prices. Persistently high water-soluble fertilizer prices may encourage a shift toward more affordable conventional fertilizers, including single superphosphate, urea and DAP.

The water-saving benefits of water-soluble fertilizers are most apparent in years with irregular rainfall. When the additional crop revenue cannot cover the price premium, demand may decline rapidly. This would further compress industry margins while increasing the government’s fertilizer subsidy expenditure.

As a result, additional policies governing fertilizer distribution and pricing may be introduced.

2. Q3 Phosphoric Acid Benchmark Rises 25% as Sulfur Costs Spread Across the Phosphate Fertilizer Chain

According to industry pricing reported by Argus Media, India’s Coromandel International and Jordan-based JPMC have concluded their July–September quarterly phosphoric acid contract.

The agreed benchmark price is USD 1,700/MT P₂O₅ on a delivered basis, representing an increase of USD 340/MT, or 25%, from the second quarter.

The second-quarter price had already increased to USD 1,360/MT from USD 1,290/MT in the first quarter.

The latest increase is primarily driven by tight sulfur availability. Delivered prices for dry bulk sulfur arriving in India rose by nearly 49% during the second quarter.

For July, ADNOC increased its contractual FOB sulfur price at Ruwais, Abu Dhabi, by USD 140/MT, bringing the price to a record high of USD 1,000/MT.

Phosphoric acid is a key feedstock for DAP production. As India is currently entering its peak annual fertilizer consumption period, higher phosphoric acid prices are directly increasing phosphate fertilizer production costs.

Market participants expect the sulfur supply deficit to remain difficult to resolve in the near term. Risk premiums associated with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are also declining only gradually. Consequently, phosphate fertilizer feedstock costs are expected to remain elevated throughout the third quarter.

Three indicators should be closely monitored:

• Total fertilizer import volumes

• Producers’ ability to pass higher costs downstream

• The impact of state-level monsoon rainfall distribution on actual fertilizer purchasing volumes

II. International Nitrogen and Phosphate Markets Diverge: Urea Falls 22% in One Month, While Phosphates Remain Strong

1. Urea Prices Correct Sharply as Global Supply Conditions Ease

International urea futures declined to USD 366.50/MT on June 26, representing a monthly decrease of 22% and a year-on-year decline of 7.8%.

The reversal was primarily driven by two factors: the temporary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, which eased shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and China’s resumption of higher-volume urea exports.

In April, disruptions to shipping routes pushed delivered urea prices in India to as high as USD 950/MT, the highest level since 2022.

However, the June urea tender issued by India’s National Fertilizers Limited became a turning point for the market. Against a procurement requirement of 1.7 million MT, suppliers offered approximately 6.25 million MT.

Accepted delivered prices were only USD 444-449/MT, almost half the previous market peak. The tender results confirmed that global nitrogen fertilizer supply had returned to relatively comfortable levels.

StoneX expects short-term urea market direction to depend mainly on the pace of Chinese exports and the timing of autumn fertilizer procurement in the United States.

2. DAP Strengthens Independently Under Firm Feedstock Cost Support

In contrast to the decline in urea prices, global DAP prices have increased by approximately 28% compared with levels before the geopolitical conflict.

By the end of June, delivered DAP prices in Pakistan had reached USD 925-950/MT.

The market is being supported by two principal factors:

First, global sulfur supply remains tight, keeping upstream phosphate fertilizer production costs at elevated levels.

Second, the movement of phosphate fertilizers and related feedstocks through the Strait of Hormuz remains less efficient than normal. Higher freight costs and persistent risk premiums continue to support spot prices.

III. New Global Supply and Regional Fertilizer Import Developments

1. Chinese-Invested Potash Project in the Republic of the Congo Confirms Production Schedule

The Ministry of Mines of the Republic of the Congo has confirmed that the Mengo-Makola potash project is the country’s most advanced planned potash development.

Trial production is scheduled to begin by the end of 2026, followed by commercial-scale production in the first quarter of 2027. The project is expected to end the country’s decades-long absence of large-scale potash fertilizer production.

Located in Kouilou Province, the project’s first phase is designed to produce 600,000 MT of potassium chloride annually. Long-term capacity is expected to reach 2 million MT per year.

The project will also include a dedicated maritime export terminal and supporting logistics infrastructure. Once operational, it is expected to become a stable new source of potash supply for the global market.

2. South and Southeast Asian Markets Release New Fertilizer Import Orders

Nepal: The agricultural authorities plan to complete imports of 210,000 MT of fertilizer by mid-August to support rice cultivation.

Of this volume, 30,000 MT of urea will be purchased from India under a government-to-government agreement.

A further 180,000 MT will be sourced through international tenders, including:

• 60,000 MT of DAP

• 120,000 MT of urea

Myanmar: The Myanmar Fertilizer, Seed and Pesticide Entrepreneurs Association has issued its fertilizer import notice for the third quarter, covering July through September.

Under the arrangement, participating companies will jointly procure balanced 15-15-15 compound fertilizer through a competitive bidding process to secure fertilizer supply for the following agricultural season.

Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW29) | July 6 -13, 2026