Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW30) | July 13-20, 2026

I. Executive Overview: Full Escalation of the U.S.–Iran Conflict Strengthens the Outlook for Higher International Urea Prices

Geopolitical risk became the primary driver of the global fertilizer market this week. Beginning July 7, the United States resumed and intensified sanctions on Iranian oil, followed by consecutive military strikes from July 11 to July 14. On July 14, the United States formally imposed a blockade on Iranian ports and coastal shipping.

Iran responded by attacking U.S. military bases in the Middle East and targeting commercial vessels. Both sides subsequently declared the previous memorandum of understanding invalid, while navigation through the Strait of Hormuz became severely disrupted.

Crude oil and natural gas prices rose sharply, while Middle Eastern urea export routes faced significant restrictions. An increase in international urea prices has therefore become increasingly certain. However, the extent of the increase will be moderated by three counterbalancing factors.

1. Rising Production Costs

European TTF natural gas prices increased from approximately €40/MWh in mid-June to €53/MWh on July 14, representing a rise of more than 30%. This has significantly increased production costs for natural gas-based urea producers outside China.

2. Supply Contraction

Urea exports from the Middle East and Iran rely heavily on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Disruption or suspension of navigation directly reduces the volume of fertilizer available to the global market.

3. Factors Limiting Further Price Increases

• Higher Chinese urea exports are offsetting part of the supply shortage: China’s urea exports increased by 551.9% year on year during the first half of 2026, partially compensating for reduced Middle Eastern supply.

• Seasonal weakening of global demand: Fertilizer application in the Northern Hemisphere is concentrated mainly in the first half of the year, with overall demand generally declining during the second half.

• The conflict may be relatively short-lived: The United States faces midterm elections in November and has a strong incentive to contain oil prices. Iran is also under considerable domestic economic pressure. Following a period of short-term strategic confrontation, there is a relatively high probability that negotiations will resume before the end of September, limiting the likelihood of a prolonged conflict.

II. Global Fertilizer Trade Data for 2025

1. Overall Market Size

Global fertilizer imports reached USD 112.9 billion in 2025, an increase of 15.1% compared with 2021 and 17.7% above the USD 96.0 billion recorded in 2024, indicating a clear recovery in international demand.

2. Major Importing Countries

Brazil, India, the United States, China and Australia were the five largest fertilizer importers, jointly accounting for 41.6% of total global import value.

India recorded the strongest growth in fertilizer demand. Russia remained one of the world’s leading fertilizer exporters and was among the major suppliers to each of the four largest importing markets.

3. Regional Distribution

Asia ranked first with fertilizer imports valued at USD 38.6 billion, accounting for 34.2% of the global total.

• Europe: 22.0%

• Latin America: 20.9%

• North America: 12.4%

• Africa: 6.8%

• Oceania: 3.6%

Regional trends remained highly divergent. U.S. fertilizer imports contracted, while major agricultural economies in Asia and Latin America continued to expand procurement.

4. Product Structure

Nitrogen fertilizers dominated global fertilizer imports, accounting for 75.2% of total volume.

• Nitrogen fertilizers: 75.2%

• Potash fertilizers: 19.4%

• Phosphate fertilizers: 4.0%

• Organic and other fertilizers: 1.3%

5. China’s Position in Global Fertilizer Trade

China was the world’s fourth-largest fertilizer importer while also serving as an important source of fertilizer exports to Brazil and India. Its dual role as both a major importer and exporter has become increasingly prominent.

III. China’s Fertilizer Import and Export Data for the First Half of 2026

A. Exports from January to June

China exported a total of 16.596 million tonnes of fertilizers during the first half of 2026, down 3.1% year on year. Export value reached USD 3.961 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of 2.7%.

Performance varied significantly by product category.

• Urea: 500,000 tonnes, up 551.9% year on year, becoming the principal Chinese fertilizer product helping to offset international supply shortages.

• Ammonium sulfate: 10.17 million tonnes, up 15.1%, remaining China’s largest fertilizer export by volume.

• Diammonium phosphate: 70,000 tonnes, down 87.7%.

• Monoammonium phosphate: 110,000 tonnes, down 56.2%.

Total exports represented approximately 2.477 million tonnes of nutrient content on a pure nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium basis.

In June alone, fertilizer exports reached 2.232 million tonnes, a sharp year-on-year decline of 47.9%, indicating a temporary slowdown in export activity.

B. Imports from January to June

China imported a total of 9.614 million tonnes of fertilizers during the first half of 2026, an increase of 38.6% year on year. Import value reached USD 3.603 billion, up 65.2%.

• Potassium chloride: 8.80 million tonnes, up 40.2%, reflecting strong domestic demand for imported potash.

• NPK compound fertilizers: 570,000 tonnes, up slightly by 3.2%.

IV. Weekly Market Developments in China’s Sulfur and Phosphate Value Chain

1. Sulfur

Geopolitical conflict remained the main driver of the sulfur market.

Port inventories increased slightly to 750,700 tonnes, up approximately 20,000 tonnes from the previous week. However, supply concerns continued to push spot prices higher.

The sulfur price rose by RMB 300 per tonne during the week to RMB 9,180 per tonne, while the average market price increased by RMB 354.67 per tonne.

The latest increase has been driven primarily by expectations of higher future replacement costs. Downstream phosphate fertilizer producers have shown limited procurement interest, while monoammonium phosphate operating rates declined slightly. Nevertheless, sulfur prices have now formally entered an upward cycle.

2. Sulfuric Acid

The weekly average sulfuric acid price declined slightly by RMB 20.91 per tonne to RMB 2,009.32 per tonne.

Overall market circulation remained broadly unchanged, although regional price differences reached as much as RMB 1,620 per tonne, reflecting tight supply-demand conditions in certain regions.

In the short term, the market is expected to remain volatile and range-bound because of limited downstream acceptance. However, if sulfur costs continue rising, sulfuric acid prices will have increasing potential to follow the upward trend.

3. Phosphate Rock

Phosphate rock prices and supply-demand conditions remained stable, providing consistent cost support for downstream phosphate industries.

4. Synthetic Ammonia

Affected by weakness in the domestic urea market, the average synthetic ammonia price declined slightly by RMB 1.32 per tonne to RMB 2,319.35 per tonne.

The market remained within a narrow trading range, with limited impact on phosphate fertilizer production costs.

V. Major Industry Policy: China Reintroduces Mandatory Export Inspection for Ammonium Sulfate After Eight Years

China’s General Administration of Customs issued Announcement No. 97 of 2026. Beginning July 16, ammonium sulfate and ammonium sulfate-nitrate double salts became subject to export supervision condition “B,” requiring statutory export inspection.

These products have therefore been brought back under mandatory export inspection after being removed from the inspection catalogue in 2018.

1. Industry Background

Ammonium sulfate is primarily produced as a by-product of coking and caprolactam manufacturing. The sector is highly dependent on overseas markets because large-scale domestic application is limited by the potential for soil acidification.

During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China’s ammonium sulfate exports increased from 10.65 million tonnes to 21.36 million tonnes, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 19%. China has remained the world’s largest ammonium sulfate exporter.

During the first five months of 2026, exports reached 8.3722 million tonnes, making ammonium sulfate China’s largest fertilizer export product by volume.

2. Existing Industry Challenges

• Supply is fragmented across a large number of producers and sources.

• Product quality varies significantly.

• Export market entry requirements have historically been relatively low.

• The market includes a large and fragmented group of trading companies.

• Aggressive low-price competition has occurred frequently, damaging the reputation of China’s fertilizer export industry.

3. Expected Policy Impact

In the short term, mandatory inspection will increase customs-clearance costs and extend order fulfilment lead times. Smaller traders without stable access to physical supply are expected to exit the market more rapidly.

Over the longer term, the policy should improve product quality standards, regulate export practices and benefit larger, compliance-focused enterprises. It may also support the transition towards higher-quality and more sustainable fertilizer exports.

The Ammonium Sulfate Branch of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association was established in 2025, supporting stronger industry coordination and self-regulation.

VI. International Sanctions Update: EU Court Rejects Lawsuit Seeking Belarusian Potash Transit Exemption

The General Court of the European Union rejected a lawsuit filed by a Lithuanian port company seeking the removal of restrictions on the transit of Belarusian potash. The company was ordered to bear the full cost of the legal proceedings.

The court ruled that it did not have the authority to interfere with the European Union’s foreign-policy sanctions or create an additional exemption channel for fertilizer transit.

1. Background

In 2021, the United States, the European Union and several other economies imposed sanctions on a major Belarusian potash producer.

In 2022, Lithuania fully suspended the transit of Belarusian potash. Before the restrictions, the port handled approximately 11 million tonnes of Belarusian fertilizer annually.

2. Current Situation

The Belarusian potash producer holds a 30% ownership stake in the port company but has lost its voting rights under the sanctions framework.

The company’s appeal against EU sanctions was also rejected in 2025. As a result, land-based transport routes for Belarusian potash into and through Europe remain severely restricted.

VII. Weekly Summary and Market Outlook

1. International Market

The escalating U.S.–Iran conflict is raising energy costs and disrupting Middle Eastern fertilizer shipping routes, establishing a clear upward trend in international urea prices.

However, three factors are expected to limit the scale of the increase:

• Rising Chinese urea exports

• Weaker fertilizer demand during the second half of the year

• The potentially limited duration of the conflict

Key factors to monitor include the restoration of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and progress in possible U.S.–Iran negotiations in September.

2. China’s Domestic Fertilizer Value Chain

Strong sulfur price increases are gradually strengthening cost support for sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizers.

China’s urea exports recorded substantial growth during the first half of the year, although export volumes declined temporarily in June.

The introduction of mandatory export inspection for ammonium sulfate is expected to reshape the industry’s competitive structure.

Potash imports continue to grow strongly, while the domestic phosphate rock market remains stable.

3. Global Trade Structure

Global fertilizer import demand continues to expand, with nitrogen fertilizers dominating international consumption.

China’s dual role as both a major fertilizer importer and exporter makes it a critical balancing factor in the global nitrogen fertilizer market.

European transport channels for Belarusian potash remain restricted, maintaining relatively tight conditions in the global potash supply and distribution system.

4. Key Risk Factors

• A longer-than-expected U.S.–Iran conflict

• Continued sharp increases in natural gas prices

• Changes to China’s fertilizer export policies

• Lower-than-expected customs-clearance efficiency following the introduction of mandatory inspection for ammonium sulfate

Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW30) | July 13-20, 2026