Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW35) | August 17 - 24, 2026

Global Fertilizer Prices May Remain Elevated Through 2028

CoBank believes that conflict in the Middle East, tight supply, and damaged production capacity could keep global fertilizer prices above pre-war levels through 2027-2028.

The Middle East supplies more than 60 million MT of fertilizers and fertilizer raw materials to the global market each year, of which around 45 million MT is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. The region also accounts for approximately 45% of global sulphur trade and more than 30% of global urea exports, leaving supply chains exposed to continued disruption.

Market views, however, remain divided. Global urea demand fell 27% between April and June 2026, while China’s return to the export market helped ease price pressure. NDSU expects average urea prices to reach around USD 496/MT in 2027, while StoneX believes volatility may increase without necessarily keeping prices at exceptionally high levels for an extended period.

Phosphate Fertilizer Demand Weakens

U.S. farmers have reportedly reduced phosphate and potash application rates by around 10%-15%.

Argus forecasts global phosphate fertilizer consumption to decline 13% in 2026, while production could fall from nearly 69 million MT to below 60 million MT. NDSU expects average DAP prices of around USD 666/MT in 2027, still above pre-war levels.

Overall, the fertilizer market over the next two years is more likely to be characterized by high costs and elevated volatility, rather than a sustained one-way price increase.

Global Potash Rally Loses Momentum as Demand Weakens

MOP Market Turns Softer as Supply-Demand Balance Loosens

International MOP prices rose by around 5%–8% during the first half of 2026, but the market reversed sharply after July. Brazil’s granular MOP CFR prices were the first to decline, followed by weaker spot prices in North America and Europe.

Brazil imported 8.8 million MT of MOP from January to July, still 2% above last year’s record level. However, much of the fertilizer demand for the 2026–2027 soybean season had already been secured in advance. New purchasing has therefore slowed, port inventories remain high, and traders have shifted toward destocking.

Supply conditions are also becoming more comfortable. Major global potash producers increased both production and sales during the first half of the year. Tender prices in Southeast Asia have shown spreads of more than USD 30/MT, highlighting growing differences among suppliers.

Overall, global MOP supply is expected to increase further in 2026, keeping prices under pressure.

SOP Price Momentum Also Begins to Slow

International SOP performed better than MOP during the first half of the year, supported mainly by tighter Chinese exports and rising costs for upstream raw materials such as sulphur and sulphuric acid.

However, since August, granular SOP prices in Northwest Europe have begun to soften slightly, while compound fertilizer producers have become more cautious with procurement.

Overall, the international potash market is shifting from a relatively strong first half toward more comfortable supply, cautious demand, and increasing price pressure.

Mexico Imposes Final Anti-Dumping Duty on Chinese Ammonium Sulphate

On August 14, 2026, Mexico’s Ministry of Economy issued its final affirmative determination in the anti-dumping investigation into ammonium sulphate originating from China.

Mexico imposed an anti-dumping duty of USD 0.1488/kg on the product, classified under TIGIE tariff code 3102.21.01. The measure took effect the day after publication.

Mexico initiated the investigation on February 20, 2025, and issued a preliminary affirmative determination on November 24, 2025, imposing a provisional duty of USD 0.1807/kg.

From January to July 2026, China exported 11.47 million MT of ammonium sulphate, with an export value of USD 2.341 billion. Export volume increased 3.9% year-on-year, while export value rose 42.9%.

Russian Potash Commands the Highest Import Price in China

China’s 2026 potash contract price was settled at USD 348/MT CFR.

According to data from China Customs, potash imported from Russia recorded the highest average price over the past three months, significantly above the contract benchmark.

Two factors may explain the premium:

1. A relatively high proportion of Russian imports may have been purchased outside the annual contract framework.

2. Russia may have supplied a higher share of granular MOP, which generally commands a premium over standard-grade material.

Potash imported from Uzbekistan recorded the lowest average price, although volumes remained very small. Imports from Laos were also priced below the annual contract level, while prices from most other origins remained close to the benchmark.

Another notable development is that China’s potash imports from Jordan and Israel have remained relatively stable for three consecutive months. This suggests that despite disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, potash production and exports from these countries have not been materially affected.

Egypt’s Chemical and Fertilizer Exports Rise 25.2%, with China and India Leading Growth

Egypt’s chemical and fertilizer exports increased 25.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, reaching approximately USD 6.1 billion and remaining the country’s largest non-oil export sector.

Fertilizer exports reached around USD 1.71 billion, up 10%, while petrochemical exports recorded the strongest growth, increasing 77.9%.

Asia became a major growth driver. Exports to non-Arab Asian markets surged 81%, reaching approximately USD 1.45 billion.

China was one of Egypt’s fastest-growing export destinations. Egyptian chemical and fertilizer exports to China increased from USD 31.4 million to USD 277.3 million, nearly an eightfold increase.

India also recorded exceptional growth, with exports rising from USD 84.7 million to USD 549.5 million.

Overall, Egypt is clearly accelerating its chemical and fertilizer export expansion into China, India, and other Asian markets.

Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW35) | August 17 - 24, 2026