Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW44) | October 19-26, 2026

The global fertilizer market continues to show mixed trends. China's nitrogen fertilizer exports surged in September, Laos is accelerating reforms in its potash industry, and India's fertilizer demand has weakened despite rising urea imports. Meanwhile, phosphate markets face softer demand, while raw material costs and logistics disruptions continue to influence global fertilizer prices.

1. China’s Nitrogen Fertilizer Exports Surge in September

China recorded strong export growth across three major nitrogen fertilizer products in September 2026.

Urea: Record Monthly Exports

• September exports: 2.45 million MT, up 78.7% year-on-year, setting a new monthly record.

• Export value: USD 945 million.

• January–September exports: 3.88 million MT, up approximately 38%.

• India received approximately 1.59 million MT, accounting for nearly 65% of September exports.

The sharp increase was largely driven by export quota releases and deliveries under Indian procurement contracts. Future export policies and India's upcoming tenders will remain key market drivers.

Ammonium Chloride: Exports More Than Triple

• September exports: 322,050 MT, up 213% year-on-year.

• Export value: USD 36.49 million.

• January–September exports: 1.78 million MT, up 16.9%.

• Indonesia was the largest Asian destination, importing approximately 129,180 MT.

Strong export demand, combined with reduced operating rates at some Chinese producers, has tightened available supply and supported domestic prices.

Ammonium Sulfate: Brazil Remains the Leading Market

• September exports: 2.85 million MT, up 26.4% year-on-year.

• Export value: USD 547 million.

• January–September exports: 16.19 million MT, up 6.9%.

• Brazil imported approximately 1.32 million MT, representing 46% of China's September exports.

International demand for nitrogen and sulfur nutrition remains an important driver of ammonium sulfate trade, particularly in South America.

2. Laos Plans to Restrict Raw Mineral Exports by 2030

Laos is preparing major mining policy reforms aimed at increasing domestic processing and reducing dependence on raw mineral exports.

The proposed measures include gradually restricting unprocessed mineral exports, requiring new mining projects to establish processing facilities, and promoting integrated mining and processing operations.

Potash, copper, gold, and bauxite projects are expected to face stricter requirements for local value addition.

The International Potash Industrial Park in Khammouane Province has already attracted 14 factories, representing over USD 730 million in investment.

Separately, a USD 492 million potash project backed by Vietnam's Vinachem is targeting annual production capacity of 500,000 MT of potassium chloride by 2028.

Market Outlook: Laos could become an increasingly important potash production and processing hub in Southeast Asia. However, infrastructure limitations, investment risks, and regulatory uncertainty remain significant challenges. The proposed restrictions are not yet equivalent to a ban on finished potash fertilizer exports.

3. India's Urea Imports Rise Despite Weaker Fertilizer Consumption

During April–September 2026, India's urea imports reached 5.59 million MT, an increase of 40.5% year-on-year.

However, domestic fertilizer consumption showed signs of weakness:

• Urea sales declined 4.1%.

• NP/NPK fertilizer sales dropped 22.2%.

• MOP sales decreased 11.7%.

• DAP imports fell 11.2%.

Unfavorable monsoon conditions contributed to weaker agricultural demand in several regions.

Market Outlook: India's fertilizer imports remain heavily influenced by government procurement, inventory management, and supply security. Upcoming urea tenders will continue to play an important role in international nitrogen fertilizer pricing.

4. Global Phosphate Markets Face Softer Demand

International phosphate fertilizer markets remain under pressure as purchasing activity slows in major importing countries, particularly Brazil and India.

High MAP prices have encouraged some Brazilian buyers to consider alternative phosphate sources, including TSP. Brazil's TSP imports reached approximately 1.7 million MT during January–September 2026, an increase of 8.5%.

Nevertheless, sulfur costs, production adjustments, and supply chain disruptions continue to provide some price support.

Market Outlook: Phosphate prices may face further downward pressure if demand remains weak. However, high raw material costs could limit price declines.

High-purity and fully water-soluble phosphates, including MKP, MAP, and UP, should be evaluated separately from conventional bulk phosphate fertilizers because their production requirements and market structures differ.

5. Global Potash Market Remains Relatively Stable

International MOP prices have shown limited movement, with Brazilian CFR indications around USD 360/MT.

Logistical disruptions affecting some Russian and Belarusian export routes continue to create uncertainty. Reported production adjustments at Uralkali have also attracted market attention.

Meanwhile, new potash investments in Laos could gradually reshape regional supply chains.

Market Outlook: The potash market is expected to remain relatively stable in the near term, with future developments depending on Brazilian demand, Chinese import contracts, logistical conditions, and new production capacity.

6. China's Sulfur Imports Decline Sharply

China imported approximately 140,900 MT of sulfur in September 2026, a decrease of 82.2% year-on-year.

Total sulfur imports during January–September reached approximately 3.06 million MT, down 61.8%.

Sulfur is a key feedstock for sulfuric acid production, which supports wet-process phosphoric acid and phosphate fertilizer manufacturing.

Market Outlook: Changes in sulfur trade flows could affect phosphate production costs. However, lower imports do not necessarily indicate a domestic shortage, as domestic sulfur production, inventories, and consumption must also be considered.

7. International Fertilizer Price Snapshot

Selected market indications as of October 23, 2026:

Product / Market	Reference Price
Urea — Egypt FOB	USD 505/MT
Urea — Brazil CFR	USD 480.5/MT
Urea — China ZCE	RMB 1,679/MT
DAP — NOLA FOB	USD 802.5/ST
MOP — Brazil CFR	Around USD 360/MT

Indicative prices only. Different delivery terms, locations, and units apply. ST refers to a US short ton.

Market Outlook: Key Trends to Watch

Nitrogen Fertilizers: China's export policies and India's procurement tenders will remain the primary drivers of short-term urea market movements.

Phosphate Fertilizers: Weak demand may pressure prices, while sulfur costs and production constraints could limit further declines.

Potash Fertilizers: Market stability will depend on regional logistics, seasonal demand, and the gradual expansion of production capacity in countries such as Laos.

Overall Assessment: Global fertilizer markets remain divided rather than following a single price trend. Supply policies, regional demand, feedstock costs, and logistics will continue to determine market movements during the final quarter of 2026.

For international buyers and distributors, securing reliable supply, monitoring procurement opportunities, and managing freight costs remain essential.

Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW44) | October 19-26, 2026