Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW45) | Oct. 26 - Nov. 2, 2026

The global fertilizer market continued to face a combination of supply disruptions and weakening demand this week. Potash exports from Russia and Belarus encountered mounting logistical challenges, Brazil's fertilizer demand forecasts were revised sharply downward, and Bangladesh advanced a new round of potash procurement.

Meanwhile, India's potential urea tender attracted considerable market attention, international phosphate fertilizer prices remained elevated, and ammonia prices strengthened amid rising European energy costs.

1. Black Sea Disruptions: Russian and Belarusian Potash Supply Faces a Potential 1.5 Million MT Shortfall in Q4

Escalating tensions in the Black Sea region have disrupted transportation through Russia's Azov Sea–Black Sea export corridor. As grain and other bulk commodity shipments shift toward Baltic ports, increasing pressure on railways, port infrastructure, and storage facilities is affecting potash exports.

Industry data indicate that three major potash suppliers - Uralkali, EuroChem, and Belarusian Potash Company (BPC) - shipped approximately 1.95 million MT in September, down around 25% from their January-August monthly average of 2.6 million MT.

Uralkali's shipments declined by approximately 27%, EuroChem's by 23%, and BPC's by 24%.

If logistical bottlenecks persist, market estimates suggest that the fourth quarter could face a potential potash supply shortfall of approximately 1.5 million MT, possibly affecting production schedules and contractual deliveries.

However, this figure remains a market-based scenario rather than a confirmed production reduction announced by the companies.

Meanwhile, elevated inventories in Brazil and slower purchasing activity in China have limited the immediate impact of supply disruptions on international potash prices.

Market Outlook: Higher logistics costs, longer shipment lead times, and delivery uncertainty could persist in the short term. However, any significant recovery in global potash prices will largely depend on demand improvement and inventory reductions.

2. Brazil Fertilizer Demand May Fall Below 42 Million MT in 2026

Brazil, one of the world's largest fertilizer import markets, is experiencing a substantial slowdown in demand due to geopolitical uncertainty, elevated raw material costs, tighter agricultural credit conditions, and declining farm profitability.

Following a record fertilizer consumption level of approximately 49.1 million MT in 2025, Brazil's 2026 demand outlook has been repeatedly revised downward.

In August, Argus projected annual demand at approximately 45 million MT. More recent estimates suggest an even weaker market:

• Mosaic: Fertilizer deliveries are expected to reach 42–44 million MT in 2026.

• CNA: Annual fertilizer consumption could fall below 42 million MT.

According to Brazil's National Association for Fertilizer Distribution (ANDA), fertilizer deliveries totaled approximately 22.9 million MT during January–July 2026, representing an 8.8% year-on-year decline. Domestic intermediate fertilizer production fell by approximately 19.7% over the same period.

Supply-side challenges have also intensified. High sulfur prices and raw material shortages have forced some domestic phosphate fertilizer producers to reduce or suspend production.

Although sulfur prices have recently eased, production costs remain elevated. Mosaic has announced temporary or partial shutdowns at certain facilities and reduced output at some blending operations.

Meanwhile, Brazil's soybean planting area for the 2026/27 season is projected to increase by only 1.4%, the slowest expansion in nearly two decades.

Farmers are increasingly postponing fertilizer purchases, reducing phosphate applications, and relying more heavily on existing soil nutrient reserves to control production costs.

Market Outlook: Weaker Brazilian demand is expected to weigh on international MAP, urea, and MOP markets. If purchasing activity remains subdued into early 2027, major fertilizer exporters could face additional pressure on sales volumes and inventories.

3. Bangladesh Moves to Procure 150,000 MT of Potash at USD 382.38/MT

On October 28, Bangladesh's Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase (CCGP) recommended approval of four fertilizer procurement proposals covering a total of 150,000 MT of muriate of potash (MOP) from Canada and Russia under government-to-government and state-level arrangements.

The proposed procurement includes:

• Canada: Two shipments of 40,000 MT each, totaling 80,000 MT, supplied through Canadian Commercial Corporation (CCC).

• Russia: Two shipments of 35,000 MT each, totaling 70,000 MT, supplied through Prodintorg, with a quantity tolerance of ±10%.

• Reference price: USD 382.38/MT for all four shipments.

• Total procurement volume: 150,000 MT.

The purchases are intended to maintain fertilizer availability and support domestic agricultural production.

Market Outlook: Government-backed procurement in South Asia continues to provide some support for international potash demand despite broader market weakness. The reported purchase price also offers a useful regional reference for import costs and supplier competition, although it should not be interpreted as a uniform global benchmark.

4. India’s Urea Procurement Shortfall Raises Expectations for Another Major Tender

International urea markets remain focused on India's next potential import tender.

An earlier tender issued by Indian Potash Limited (IPL), targeting approximately 1.7 million MT of urea, secured supply commitments of only around 410,000 MT, substantially below the intended volume.

The shortfall highlighted suppliers' reluctance to accept relatively low bidding prices.

By the end of October, market participants were anticipating another large-scale Indian urea tender, potentially involving up to 2.5 million MT. However, the proposed volume remained subject to official confirmation.

Against a backdrop of weaker demand and potential procurement activity, regional urea prices continued to diverge.

Indicative late-October market levels included:

• China, granular/prilled urea: USD 345–350/MT FOB, based on estimated export netbacks for small-prilled material.

• Middle East, granular urea: Approximately USD 440/MT FOB.

• Brazil, non-Chinese origin urea: Approximately USD 480–485/MT CFR.

Elevated European energy costs and logistical risks in the Middle East continued to constrain supply, while softer seasonal demand in Brazil and Southeast Asia placed downward pressure on prices.

Market Outlook: The volume and pricing of India's next tender, together with the availability of Chinese exports, will likely be key factors influencing international urea prices in November.

5. Phosphate Fertilizer Prices Remain Elevated as Buyers Explore Lower-Cost Alternatives

The international phosphate fertilizer market continued to experience weak purchasing activity despite ongoing supply constraints.

Although sulfur and ammonia costs continue to support production expenses, high DAP and MAP prices are increasingly meeting resistance from buyers.

Indicative late-October market prices included:

• India DAP: USD 890–900/MT CFR.

• Brazil MAP: USD 830–850/MT CFR.

Some international buyers are increasingly considering alternatives such as triple superphosphate (TSP) to reduce phosphorus procurement costs.

Meanwhile, restrictions on Chinese phosphate fertilizer exports and sulfur-related transportation challenges in the Middle East continue to affect international production and trade flows.

In Brazil, some growers are reducing phosphate fertilizer applications and relying more heavily on existing soil phosphorus reserves, further weakening conventional phosphate fertilizer demand.

Market Outlook: Phosphate fertilizer prices are likely to retain some support from production costs, but weaker downstream purchasing power may limit additional increases.

For MAP, DAP, and water-soluble phosphate suppliers, procurement timing, product differentiation, and changing agricultural nutrient requirements will remain important considerations.

6. Global Ammonia Prices Rise as European Energy Costs Tighten Supply

Unlike the relatively weak urea and phosphate fertilizer markets, international ammonia prices strengthened significantly during the week.

The Tampa ammonia contract price for November, announced on October 28, reached approximately USD 640/MT CFR, an increase of USD 95/MT compared with October.

Elevated natural gas prices in Europe continue to squeeze ammonia production margins, prompting some manufacturers to reduce output and increasing regional dependence on imported ammonia.

Market reports indicate that ammonia supplies remain tight in Europe, with prices in Northwest Europe staying at elevated levels.

Limited availability in parts of Asia has also contributed to stronger international ammonia prices.

Market Outlook: Rising ammonia costs may increase production expenses for urea, DAP, MAP, and certain compound fertilizers.

However, with downstream demand remaining relatively weak, producers may find it difficult to pass the full increase in raw material costs on to customers.

7. U.S. Fertilizer Retail Prices Continue Rising Despite Mixed Global Trends

While some international bulk fertilizer markets have experienced price corrections, agricultural retail fertilizer prices in the United States remain elevated.

According to DTN's October 28 market survey, U.S. retail prices for major fertilizer products continued their upward trend.

UAN28 recorded a monthly increase of approximately 6%, reaching USD 447 per short ton.

Other average retail prices included:

• DAP: Approximately USD 939 per short ton.

• MAP: Approximately USD 983 per short ton.

• Potash: Approximately USD 506 per short ton.

• Urea: Approximately USD 674 per short ton.

Retail prices for major fertilizer products remained above the levels recorded during the same period last year, reflecting the delayed effects of earlier supply disruptions, import costs, and domestic distribution expenses.

Meanwhile, financial pressure across the fertilizer industry remains evident.

Norwegian fertilizer producer Yara recently reported third-quarter net income of USD 199 million, down 37.8% year on year, reflecting the effects of rising energy costs and delayed purchasing activity across global markets.

Market Outlook: International spot prices and regional retail prices are not necessarily moving in the same direction. Transportation costs, inventory levels, energy expenses, and seasonal demand will continue to drive regional market differences.

Global Fertilizer Market Outlook

The global fertilizer industry is entering November amid growing supply uncertainty and significant demand adjustments.

Potash: Logistical bottlenecks affecting Russian and Belarusian exports may increase supply uncertainty. However, high inventories in Brazil and weak demand from China could limit upward price movements.

Nitrogen Fertilizers: India's anticipated urea tender may become a major market driver in November, while rising ammonia costs continue to put pressure on nitrogen fertilizer producers.

Phosphate Fertilizers: Sulfur supply constraints, elevated raw material costs, and weaker agricultural purchasing power are creating a challenging market environment. DAP and MAP prices remain relatively high, but interest in lower-cost alternatives is increasing.

Overall Outlook: International fertilizer traders and buyers should closely monitor Russian and Belarusian potash logistics, India's next urea tender, Brazilian fertilizer demand, and global ammonia and sulfur price developments.

With supply risks and demand uncertainty occurring simultaneously, flexible procurement strategies, reliable supplier selection, and diversified logistics arrangements will be increasingly important for international fertilizer trade in the coming months.

Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW45) | Oct. 26 - Nov. 2, 2026