Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW31) | July 20-27, 2026
Weekly Highlights
The global fertilizer market continued to show clear divergence this week:
Nitrogen fertilizers: European purchasing demand and policy incentives supported a recovery in urea prices, while ammonium sulfate remained under pressure due to export competition and shifting demand patterns.
Potash: Agricultural demand is entering its seasonal peak across Asia and the Americas, while rising supply-chain costs in Russia and Belarus are reinforcing an overall firm market outlook.
Industry policy: The United States announced a $500 million program to expand domestic fertilizer capacity, reflecting a broader effort among major agricultural economies to strengthen fertilizer supply-chain security.
I. Monoammonium Phosphate: Price Controls Remain in Place as New Business Stalls
The operating rate for 55% monoammonium phosphate, or MAP, stood at 51.50% this week, down 0.35 percentage points from the previous week.
The market remains subject to strict price controls. Producers are primarily fulfilling previously contracted orders, while downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers continue to show limited purchasing interest. New business has largely stalled.
Elevated sulfur and sulfuric acid prices continue to provide cost support for MAP, but weak end-user demand is limiting further upside.
In the near term, the MAP market is expected to remain characterized by high production costs, limited transactions, and strong buyer caution.
II. Compound Fertilizers: Weak Start to the Autumn Season Encourages Demand-Based Production
China’s compound fertilizer market has entered the autumn production season. However, weak advance-order performance has prompted manufacturers to adopt demand-based production and sales-driven operating strategies.
The industry operating rate fell to 28.44% this week, down 0.98 percentage points from the previous week. Downstream distributors continue to place small-volume and staggered orders, with overall purchasing activity progressing slowly.
Expectations for autumn grain prices have continued to weaken, reducing farmers’ willingness to increase agricultural input spending. At the same time, distributors have become increasingly cautious about inventory exposure and price risks.
Without a meaningful improvement in demand, the autumn fertilizer market is likely to maintain a cautious and subdued start.
III. International Nitrogen Fertilizers: Urea Rebounds While Ammonium Sulfate Remains Under Pressure
Since early July, divergence within the global nitrogen fertilizer market has become increasingly pronounced.
Egyptian granular urea FOB prices rose as high as $448 per metric ton, while Algerian urea FOB prices reached as much as $471 per metric ton. Short covering by traders and renewed European import demand have been the main drivers of the recent recovery.
The increase in European demand is closely linked to France’s nitrogen fertilizer subsidy policy. The program mainly covers straight nitrogen fertilizers such as urea and urea ammonium nitrate solution, or UAN, while excluding ammonium sulfate and NPK compound fertilizers.
Market participants expect the subsidy program to shift some European demand away from ammonium sulfate and compound fertilizers toward urea and UAN during the purchasing window ending September 30. This could provide further support to the urea market.
By comparison, ammonium sulfate is facing several challenges:
Intensifying price competition among Chinese exporters;
Relatively ample international supply;
A policy-driven shift in European demand toward straight nitrogen fertilizers;
Limited recovery in downstream industrial and agricultural consumption.
Earlier, as Middle Eastern supply risks eased and the Chinese market recovered, urea futures fell by approximately 22% within one month to around $366 per metric ton.
Urea has since regained demand support, but ammonium sulfate has not benefited from comparable market conditions.
In the near term, the international nitrogen fertilizer market is expected to maintain a structurally divided pattern, with urea remaining relatively firm and ammonium sulfate continuing to underperform.
IV. Global Potash: Synchronized Regional Demand Supports a Stronger Second-Half Outlook
According to Argus forecasts, global potash demand is expected to reach 75.8 million metric tons in 2026.
During the second half of the year, several major agricultural markets across Asia and the Americas will enter peak procurement and top-dressing periods, supporting a concentrated release of underlying potash demand.
1. Asia: China and India Provide Stability While Southeast Asia Drives Growth
Asian potash demand is forecast at approximately 33.6 million metric tons in 2026, representing 44% of total global demand.
China’s annual potash demand is expected to reach 18.7 million metric tons. As autumn cultivation and fertilizer stocking gradually begin, compound fertilizer producers are expected to increase procurement, providing fundamental support to the regional market.
India’s annual demand is forecast at approximately 4.1 million metric tons. The country has concluded its annual potash import contract at $383 per metric ton, securing core supply for the year.
During the second half, cotton, sugarcane, rice, and other major crops will enter important top-dressing stages, supporting stable import and end-user demand.
Southeast Asian potash demand is expected to reach 8.27 million metric tons in 2026. Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel policy and Malaysia’s planned increase in biodiesel blending to 15% are expected to support continued expansion of the oil palm industry.
Oil palm is a highly potassium-intensive crop, and further expansion in planted area will create sustained long-term potash demand.
Seasonal fertilization during the rainy season, together with increasing demand for crop resilience and yield protection under extreme weather conditions, will make Southeast Asia an important source of global potash consumption growth.
2. The Americas: Brazilian Restocking Demand Deserves Close Attention
Potash demand across the Americas is expected to reach 27.3 million metric tons in 2026, including approximately 17 million metric tons in Latin America and 10.3 million metric tons in North America.
Brazil’s annual demand is forecast at 14.3 million metric tons. The soybean planting season will begin during the second half of the year, while farmers’ earlier potash purchasing progress has remained relatively slow. This creates considerable room for concentrated restocking.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects Brazil’s soybean planted area to reach approximately 50 million hectares in the 2026/27 season, an increase of 1.5 million hectares from the previous season.
Continued expansion in soybean acreage is expected to translate directly into additional potash consumption.
Meanwhile, autumn field crops and cash crops in the United States will enter their regular fertilizer application periods, providing supplementary support to North American fertilizer demand.
V. Potash Supply: Rising Russian and Belarusian Logistics Costs Reinforce Price Support
Russia and Belarus together account for more than 40% of global potash trade. Changes in their logistics and supply-chain costs therefore have a significant influence on international potash prices.
According to Uralkali’s 2025 annual report, railway transportation and railcar rental accounted for 28% of the company’s cash costs. Freight expenses, including ocean transportation, port handling, and transshipment, accounted for another 22%.
Combined, these logistics-related expenses represented nearly 50% of total cash costs.
In 2025, Uralkali’s railway transportation costs increased by 32% year on year to $464 million, making logistics an increasingly important factor in the company’s export pricing.
Russian railway charges have been raised several times in recent years:
A 13.8% increase in January 2025;
A further 10% increase in December 2025;
An additional 1.01% railway infrastructure surcharge introduced in February 2026.
Cumulative railway-related charges have risen by nearly 25% over two years, further increasing the cost of Russian potash supply.
Belarus faces even greater logistics pressure. Following the suspension of its traditional export route through Lithuania’s Port of Klaipėda, Belarusian potash has had to be redirected through Russian ports.
The transportation distance has consequently increased from approximately 600 kilometers to more than 1,200 kilometers.
The minimum logistics cost of transshipping through Russian ports is now estimated at around $58 per metric ton, significantly higher than the previous cost of approximately $25 per metric ton through Lithuanian ports.
Although some Belarusian potash can be transported to China through China–Europe rail services, capacity constraints and higher costs prevent rail from fully replacing traditional maritime routes.
With low-cost logistics routes unlikely to be restored in the short term and Russian railway charges continuing to rise, supply-side cost support in the global potash market is expected to remain strong.
VI. United States Allocates $500 Million to Expand Domestic Fertilizer Capacity
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has announced a $500 million initiative known as the Fertilizer Investment and Expansion for Long-term Domestic Supply program, or FIELDS.
The program will provide financial support to eligible companies and institutions for:
Constructing new fertilizer production facilities;
Expanding existing manufacturing sites;
Upgrading storage and logistics infrastructure;
Improving domestic fertilizer production capacity and distribution efficiency.
The U.S. government aims to reduce dependence on imported fertilizers, expand purchasing options for farmers, and limit the impact of fertilizer price volatility on agricultural production.
The USDA also highlighted measures being taken by private-sector companies. CF Industries has postponed planned maintenance to prioritize domestic fertilizer availability, while Pivot Bio has secured stable supply pricing through 2028.
A major ammonia production facility under development by CF Industries is also expected to strengthen U.S. nitrogen fertilizer capacity once completed.
In parallel, the U.S. Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission are conducting civil and criminal antitrust investigations into the fertilizer industry.
The investigations are focusing on fertilizer pricing, market allocation, supply distribution, and whether coordinated or manipulative practices may be affecting the market.
VII. Market Outlook
Nitrogen Fertilizers
European subsidy policies and purchasing demand are expected to continue supporting urea prices, although elevated prices may also limit incremental buying.
Ammonium sulfate is likely to remain under pressure in the near term due to its exclusion from subsidy programs, intensifying export competition, and weak downstream demand.
Potash
China, India, Southeast Asia, and Brazil are entering important seasonal fertilizer application and procurement periods, creating a generally supportive demand environment.
At the same time, rising logistics costs in Russia and Belarus are strengthening suppliers’ willingness to defend prices.
The global potash market is therefore expected to remain stable to firm.
Overall Assessment
The global fertilizer market is not experiencing a broad-based rally. Instead, it is displaying a clearly differentiated structure:
Urea and potash benefit from relatively strong demand and cost support;
Sulfur prices remain firm, but downstream phosphate fertilizer demand is weak;
Ammonium sulfate and certain compound fertilizers continue to face demand pressure;
Supply-chain security and domestic fertilizer capacity expansion are becoming increasingly important policy priorities worldwide.
Key factors to monitor include European nitrogen fertilizer procurement, the start of China’s autumn fertilizer season, India’s import activity, Brazilian soybean planting and fertilizer stocking, and developments affecting major shipping routes such as the Red Sea.
Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW31) | July 20-27, 2026
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