Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW32) | July 27-August 3, 2026

Market Overview

Global fertilizer markets remain divided. Urea prices have stabilized at lower levels as Chinese exports resume, while phosphate prices remain elevated due to supply disruptions, high raw-material costs and restricted Middle Eastern logistics.

India continues to support global nitrogen demand through another major urea tender, while weaker agricultural profitability is slowing fertilizer purchasing in Brazil.

Urea Prices Expected to Remain Rangebound

Urea prices fell sharply in June and remained broadly stable in July. Following the resumption of Chinese exports in late May, global supply and demand have gradually returned to balance.

After briefly rising to nearly US$900/t during the escalation of the US–Iran conflict, global prices have fallen back to around US$400/t.

China is forecast to export approximately 6.5 million tonnes of urea in 2026, compared with 4.6 million tonnes in 2025. The release of previously delayed cargoes around the Strait of Hormuz has also reduced market volatility.

Prices may strengthen during September and October as:

• India continues seasonal purchasing for kharif crops.

• Latin American buyers return to the market.

• European importers build inventories before the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism takes full effect on January 1, 2027.

Phosphate Prices Could Remain High into 2027

Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to restrict phosphate fertilizers, sulphur and ammonia supplies.

Saudi shipments remain constrained, while producers across the Middle East and North Africa face higher production and logistics costs. Chinese phosphate exports may recover in August, but volumes are expected to remain below historical levels.

As a result, phosphate fertilizer prices are likely to remain elevated through the end of 2026, with tightness potentially extending into the first quarter of 2027.

Regional conditions remain mixed:

• North America: Comfortable inventories and weaker summer replenishment.

• Brazil: Stronger third-quarter demand, with MAP prices approaching or exceeding US$900/t CFR.

• South Asia: Continued purchasing from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

• Europe: Demand may recover towards year-end.

Morocco’s OCP has also faced pressure from sulphur shortages and elevated input costs. Overall, global phosphate supply is expected to remain tight during the third quarter, limiting the potential for a significant price correction.

Brazilian Fertilizer Deliveries May Fall by at Least 10%

Brazil’s fertilizer industry expects deliveries for the 2026/27 planting season to decline by at least 10%.

Higher fertilizer costs, expensive agricultural credit, farmer debt and weaker grain margins have delayed purchasing.

Current procurement progress is estimated at:

• Soybean fertilizers: Approximately 80%, compared with 85% last year.

• Second-crop corn fertilizers: Approximately 30%, compared with 35% last year.

Improving soybean prices and better soybean-to-fertilizer barter ratios have recently supported demand. Around 3 million tonnes of fertilizer were reportedly sold in Brazil during the previous three weeks.

Nevertheless, total fertilizer arrivals are still forecast to decline by approximately 5–10 million tonnes from the record 49 million tonnes delivered in 2025. Most of the reduction is expected in nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.

India Launches 1.7 Million-Tonne Urea Tender

On July 29, India’s state-owned Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers issued a tender for up to 1.7 million tonnes of bulk urea.

The volume is divided into:

• 1.0 million tonnes for the west coast

• 700,000 tonnes for the east coast

The tender closes on August 11 and is expected to become one of the most important pricing indicators for the international urea market in the third quarter.

Competitive offers and strong Chinese participation could limit price increases. Higher-than-expected bids would indicate tighter supply and provide additional support to global urea prices.

Global Fertilizer Trade Reaches US$81 Billion

FAO data indicate that global fertilizer production continued to increase in 2025:

• Ammonia: 192 million tonnes

• Urea: 204 million tonnes

• MAP and DAP: 68 million tonnes

• Potash: 77 million tonnes

Global fertilizer trade reached approximately 185 million tonnes, up 3% year on year. However, the total trade value increased more sharply to around US$81 billion, compared with US$68 billion in 2024.

The increase reflects higher nitrogen and phosphate prices, rising energy costs, tighter raw-material supplies and geopolitical risk premiums.

The concentration of fertilizer, ammonia and sulphur exports in the Gulf has made the Strait of Hormuz a critical vulnerability for the global fertilizer supply chain.

Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW32) | July 27-August 3, 2026