Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW34) | August 10 - 17, 2026

Key Takeaways

This week, the global fertilizer market was shaped by three major themes: the rising strategic value of potash, renewed competition in the global urea market, and softer fertilizer flows into Brazil.

Potash remains structurally supported by food-security concerns and highly concentrated global supply. Meanwhile, India is diversifying urea sourcing away from the Gulf while lower-priced Chinese cargoes are returning to the market. In Brazil, fertilizer deliveries, domestic production, and imports all declined during the first five months of 2026.

1. Potash Gains Strategic Importance as Critical-Mineral Competition Intensifies

On August 7, the United States announced $3 billion in support for domestic critical-mineral and battery projects, highlighting the growing importance of resource security amid global supply-chain restructuring.

Similar policies are being introduced elsewhere. Australia continues to implement its 2023–2030 Critical Minerals Strategy, Canada expanded support for defense-related critical minerals in 2026, and the UK launched a £25 million program covering mining, processing and recycling.

Potash increasingly fits into this strategic framework because of three characteristics: essential demand, concentrated resources and limited substitution.

China classified potash as a strategic mineral in 2016, Canada added it to its critical-minerals list in 2021, and the United States followed in 2025.

Why Potash Matters

Food-security demand remains structural. Potash is one of the three primary crop nutrients and plays a key role in yield, crop quality and stress resistance. IFA expects global fertilizer demand to grow around 1-2% annually during 2025-2029, while potash demand is projected to increase by approximately 2-3% annually.

Argus estimates global MOP demand at around 75.8 million tonnes in 2026, with Asia, Latin America and North America remaining the largest consumption centers.

Supply remains highly concentrated. Potash resources are non-renewable and new mining capacity requires long development cycles. According to 2026 USGS data, Canada, Russia and Belarus account for roughly 65.2% of recoverable reserves and 63.7% of global production capacity.

Import dependence is particularly high in major agricultural markets, including Brazil, the United States, China and Southeast Asia, leaving the market exposed to geopolitical and logistics disruptions.

Large-scale substitution remains limited. Crop residues and organic fertilizers can recycle existing potassium, but they cannot fully replace external potassium removed through harvesting. Mineral potash therefore remains essential for maintaining long-term soil fertility.

2. Nutrien and ICL Report Stronger Q2 Potash Performance

Major potash producers Nutrien and ICL both reported stronger second-quarter results, supported by higher sales volumes and improved pricing.

Nutrien

Nutrien produced and sold nearly 4 million tonnes of potash during the quarter.

Potash revenue increased approximately 6% year on year, while gross margin rose around 10%. Higher selling prices supported earnings, although rising unit production costs partially offset the improvement.

Industry inventories remain relatively low, while Canpotex's Q3 sales program is reportedly fully committed.

Nutrien maintained its forecast for 2026 global potash shipments of 74-77 million tonnes.

ICL

ICL recorded more than 10% year-on-year growth in potash production and sales volumes, supported by stronger exports to China, India and Brazil.

Average selling prices rose approximately 13%, while segment revenue and EBITDA increased by around 22% and 34%, respectively.

However, operating costs also increased sharply. Middle East tensions pushed freight rates approximately 45% higher quarter on quarter, while currency appreciation created additional pressure.

Outlook

Global agricultural fundamentals remain supportive. Potash is currently relatively competitive compared with nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, helping sustain demand.

Brazil is expected to retain significant second-half purchasing requirements, while palm-oil economics in Southeast Asia and biofuel-related crop demand in the United States continue to support fertilizer consumption.

Overall, the potash market remains stable to firm, with limited signs of major near-term downside.

3. Brazil Fertilizer Deliveries, Production and Imports Decline

According to Brazil's fertilizer association ANDA, fertilizer deliveries reached 3.16 million tonnes in May 2026, down 14.7% year on year from 3.70 million tonnes.

From January through May, total deliveries reached 15.46 million tonnes, down approximately 2.2% from 15.81 million tonnes during the same period of 2025.

Strong second-crop corn performance supported demand earlier in the year, but new purchasing activity slowed after geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased market uncertainty.

Mato Grosso remained Brazil's largest fertilizer-consuming state, receiving 3.89 million tonnes, or approximately 25.2% of national deliveries.

Other major consuming states included:

• Paraná: 1.75 million tonnes

• São Paulo: 1.67 million tonnes

• Goiás: 1.61 million tonnes

• Minas Gerais: 1.15 million tonnes

Domestic Production

Brazil produced 485,000 tonnes of fertilizer in May, down 26.2% year on year.

January-May production totaled 2.41 million tonnes, down 17.1% from 2.90 million tonnes a year earlier.

ANDA attributed part of the decline to higher sulfur costs, an important input for Brazil's phosphate fertilizer industry.

Imports

Brazil imported 3.31 million tonnes of fertilizer in May, down 9.4% year on year.

January-May imports totaled 14.52 million tonnes, compared with 14.92 million tonnes in the same period of 2025, representing a decline of approximately 2.7%.

The data indicate that Brazil remains heavily dependent on imported fertilizer, but purchasing momentum has softened as buyers become more cautious about prices and geopolitical risks.

4. India Diversifies Urea Supply as Chinese Cargoes Return at Lower Prices

Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are encouraging India to diversify urea sourcing away from traditional Gulf suppliers.

During the first quarter of the current fiscal year, India imported around 2.5 million tonnes of urea.

Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria and Georgia supplied approximately 1.31 million tonnes, representing around 52% of total imports.

Supply volumes included:

• Egypt: 609,000 tonnes

• Algeria: 245,000 tonnes

• Nigeria: 244,000 tonnes

• Georgia: 211,000 tonnes

The three African suppliers alone provided nearly 1.1 million tonnes, compared with virtually no imports from these four countries during the same period a year earlier.

The shift highlights India's growing focus on supply diversification and reduced exposure to Gulf logistics risks.

RCF Tender Falls Below $400/t CFR

At the same time, India's latest RCF urea tender indicates sharply lower international pricing.

The tender seeks up to 1.7 million tonnes, with shipment required by September 24.

The lowest reported offers were:

• East Coast: $390.25/t CFR

• West Coast: $393.65/t CFR

Around 1.336 million tonnes of offers were submitted below $400/t CFR.

By comparison, the previous NFL tender on June 8 recorded minimum prices of:

• East Coast: $444.90/t CFR

• West Coast: $449.30/t CFR

The market has therefore fallen by approximately $50-60/t in just over two months.

Chinese Urea Returns to the Market

One major factor behind the decline is the return of significant volumes of Chinese prilled urea.

Based on current Indian CFR levels, netbacks for Chinese East Coast cargoes are estimated below $370/t FOB, while recent Chinese sales to other destinations have reportedly reached the mid-$360s/t FOB.

Market estimates suggest China could make 1.0–1.5 million tonnes available for export.

If these volumes are executed, Chinese supply could take market share from Middle Eastern, Russian and African suppliers.

Russian suppliers are also facing pricing pressure, with some Indian West Coast offers implying Baltic FOB values below $340/t, compared with previous supplier targets of $355–360/t or higher.

The key constraint is now likely to be execution rather than price. Inspection, inland logistics, port availability and vessel schedules will determine how much Chinese tonnage can actually meet India's September shipment deadline.

5. Pupuk Indonesia Closes Initial Bidding for 90,000 MT DAP Tender

Indonesia's state-owned fertilizer group Pupuk Indonesia closed the first bidding stage of a new DAP procurement tender on August 10.

The tender, launched on August 7, seeks approximately 90,000 tonnes of granular DAP, covering grades 16-45 and/or 18-46, for shipment mainly between September and November.

Offers are required on an 18-46 DAP CFR equivalent basis.

Planned allocations include:

• Petrokimia Gresik: 30,000 tonnes

• Pupuk Kalimantan Timur / PKG: 20,000 tonnes

• Pupuk Kalimantan Timur / PKT: 20,000 tonnes

• Pupuk Kujang: 20,000 tonnes

The timing of the online price-auction stage has not yet been announced.

Pupuk Indonesia's previous 45,000-tonne DAP tender, concluded on July 16, was reported at approximately $877/t CFR.

The latest tender will therefore provide another important price reference for phosphate fertilizers in Southeast Asia.

Market Outlook

The global fertilizer market remains highly influenced by geopolitics, supply concentration and changing trade flows.

Potash fundamentals remain constructive as food-security concerns reinforce its strategic-resource status.

In urea, the re-emergence of Chinese export supply is increasing competition and putting downward pressure on international prices, particularly in India.

Brazilian demand remains large but purchasing activity has softened, while Indonesia's latest DAP tender will help establish the next regional phosphate price benchmark.

Overall, the market is moving toward a period in which supply security, logistics efficiency and price competitiveness are becoming equally important drivers of fertilizer trade.

Global Fertilizer Market Weekly Update (CW34) | August 10 - 17, 2026